The growing sense of an economic cliff is based on three major factors, all of them in massive markets as opposed to manipulated and ill-suited statistics. The most obvious are oil prices and the UST curve (and related curve mechanics) as they have turned to prices and shapes not seen since the worst of the last crisis. The third, “dollar” [...]
I’m not sure what popular perception believes of international holdings of “reserves”, but I would wager there is a rather large disconnect between it and how the international system actually works. This is more than just theoretical notions of banking in eurodollar shadows, but the pipelines that connect and cross the globe. Central banks do not have massive stores of [...]
Earlier in January, despite the auspices of assurances from the Banco do Brasil, the Brazilian government auctioned its newest 10-year government bond (NTN-F) at a record high yield. Almost immediately there was an attempt to soften such a blow, as the Brazilian commentary network was filled with, “it wasn’t as bad as expected.” The “when issued” yield came out at [...]
It isn’t exactly the Thai baht, but the dong was slightly devalued yesterday. Vietnam reduced its reference rate by about 1% (the reference rate is the midpoint in a currency corridor for the dong/dollar exchange value). Vietnam devalued by about 8.5% early in 2011, so it doesn’t seem to be much of a move in comparison. But the dong follows [...]
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