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they really don’t know what they are doing

The Nearing End of ‘Stimulus’

By |2016-02-16T13:08:51-05:00February 16th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As China, Japan is the definition of insanity. GDP fell 1.4% in Q4 2015, marking the fifth contraction out of the past nine quarters and yet the word “stimulus” remains attached to QQE, the Bank of Japan and Abenomics in general. At this point, how much more time and sample size is necessary before calling it a failure? In about [...]

The Double Fallacy Recovery

By |2016-02-10T11:36:33-05:00February 10th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Everyone knows the Titanic sank in April 1912, and if they didn’t they were reminded only a few years ago at its centennial. Less well known, for good reason, is the novel Futility, written by Morgan Robertson in 1898 years before Titanic had even been conceived. Robertson’s book includes the largest vessel ever constructed and he even offered it the [...]

NIRP Is So Simple

By |2016-02-03T11:56:03-05:00February 3rd, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why won’t monetary policy just work as designed? It sounds so utterly simple: To review: Interest rates are the price of lending and saving money. When interest rates throughout the economy are low, banks charge less for loans and individuals have less incentive to save; when they're high, lenders charge more and individuals save more. This is why central banks [...]

Suicidal Tendencies, But ‘New and Improved’!

By |2016-02-03T11:14:32-05:00February 3rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Advertising in the modern age is an extremely difficult task with all the clutter and noise. If you hadn’t noticed, it leaves many products experimenting with packaging in order to sell “new and improved.” The “easy pour spout”, for instance, became commonplace as if the old manner of detergent weren’t easy or comfortable to begin with. I seriously doubt that [...]

Is GDP Yellen’s Cronkite?

By |2016-01-29T19:11:31-05:00January 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Fourth quarter GDP was estimate at just +0.68906% Q/Q in its advance statement. There is no more “residual seasonality” left with which to obfuscate the deficiency in 2015; the year ended as it had begun, under great suspicion. Unlike most economic context given as commentary, that actually makes sense as both markets and other more fruitful economic measures have been [...]

The Question Is Not A Difficult One To Answer

By |2016-01-29T15:42:21-05:00January 29th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At what point do we accede back to logic and rational thought? The Bank of Japan is “forced”, not my word, to unleash negative nominal interest rates and that is taken as a positive for everyone everywhere. Such a move is, without question, an open admission that QQE failed and failed spectacularly (since it was even expanded not really that [...]

The Implications of Federal Reserve Accounting in ‘Missing Money’

By |2016-01-26T16:32:00-05:00January 26th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Someone emailed me this article published at Yahoo!Finance that purports the Fed’s tightening is going to send stocks soaring, the DJIA mentioned specifically heading toward 25,000. The way in which this thesis was derived is the object of inquiry, starting with the belief that QE4 (QE5 by my reckoning) is forthcoming. This is not due to the Fed realizing its [...]

Beyond The Semantics of ‘Missing Money’

By |2016-01-26T11:51:53-05:00January 26th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economists had noticed by the mid-1970’s that what they thought were steady money relationships with the economy had broken down. This divergence was not slight; how could it be given that the era still stands today as the Great Inflation? Ostensibly, a great deal of research on the topic was devoted to monetary policy implications which is a direct assault [...]

This Man Used To Price Systemic Risk

By |2016-01-19T13:10:19-05:00January 19th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ben Bernanke has shown a singular capacity from his entire time as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, one that he has clearly held onto and even nurtured in the nearly two years since he left office. Unlike many other notable economists, Bernanke still has the ability to astound, to produce an uneven marvel at how the man ever got so [...]

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