201807.11 2

Not Exactly Paradox, Reflation In Oil Deflation In Copper

The PBOC really needn’t have conducted the last few of its RRR raises. By the time they were in the books, Chinese inflation was already well underway toward being tamed. Though their CPI wouldn’t register for a few more months still, peaking in July 2011, commodities had already turned decidedly downward. Copper went first, hitting…


There Is Only One Global Trade War

IHS Markit reported last week that its composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded slightly in its first reading for June 2018. In January, the index had managed nearly 59, the highest in a very long time. It was taken as a definitive sign that Europe’s economy was not only booming, that boom was sustainable. Global…


China Reopens With Another Sneeze

If it seemed a bit calmer yesterday in global markets than has become typical, it was likely due to the absence of Chinese influence. China’s markets were closed for the country’s annual Dragon Boat festival, a holiday tradition that supposedly dates back 2,000 years. According to state media, it’s not strictly Chinese any longer. The…


Is Reflation #3 Over? Some Important Data Is Pointing Toward That Possibility

As a starting point, the TIC data is enormously helpful. Not only does it provide some badly needed level of detail, the series’ focus is right in the area where everything matters. Ostensibly about Treasuries being bought and sold in foreign places, quite by accident the Treasury Department has captured an introductory measure of offshore…


TIC in March

When we last left off with the TIC data, the figures showed pretty clearly Japan’s retreat from “dollar” dealing during January and February. Global liquidations occurred during January and February. Therefore, it was reasonable to speculate upon Japanese origins of those liquidations. That wasn’t the only interesting development revealed by TIC. Over in Hong Kong,…

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Can We Blame Japan For The Liquidations (and HKD)? Right Now It Sure Seems That Way

February was a very interesting month, wasn’t it? There was the pause or even end of the inflation hysteria driven home by “unexpected” liquidations in markets all over the world. On top of those, LIBOR-OIS blew out and all the absurd explanations put forth for it, and even outright lies. Needless to say (write), I’ve…

201804.16 12

Some First Principles Of A ‘Dollar Short’

On Friday I wrote: Again, the size of your reserves reflects, and is proportional to, your potential need for funding. You can’t accumulate that many unless you have a similarly arrayed “dollar short.” The bigger the stockpile the more potential for it to get out of hand if things go the wrong way (usually on…


COT Blue: Which BOND ROUT!!!! Was It Really?

The only way to change the meaning of a word like “transitory” is to put together a constant string of temporary factors that when taken individually keep with the traditional definition but in combination completely obliterate it. Something happens to knock inflation off track, and then just as soon as that one thing is about…


Was January A More Complete Dollar Inflection?

Friday, January 26, stocks hit their last record highs. Buoyed by supposedly strong earnings along with near euphoria about tax reform anecdotes, all three major US indices were sitting at their respective tops after another big week. Everything was apparently going in the right direction: All the three key U.S. indexes closed at record levels…


Escalation(s) TIC

According to the US Treasury Department’s Treasury International Capital (TIC) report, foreign private holders of UST’s had been selling them steadily in the last quarter of last year. Estimates including those just released for December 2017 show a total net reduction of $24 billion. While that’s not a huge number, private overseas interests typically buy…