tic

Brazil Money Math

By |2018-09-19T12:41:14+00:00September 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On June 10, 2013, Brazil’s central bank announced an allotment of 40,000 currency swap contracts at auction. This was the second operation carried out in short order that month, following weakness in the real, Brazil’s currency (BRL), against the dollar. In order to forestall any further declines, central bank intervention has long been a frontline [...]

TIC For July 2018: June Was Even Bigger Than We Thought, Meaning May 29

By |2018-09-18T17:33:50+00:00September 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You never quite know what you’re going to get with each monthly update. High frequency data tends to be noisy anyway, more so in the more exotic series. Following a month where something really changes, however, you aren’t quite sure if it will turn out to be nothing more than a phantom. Does last month’s [...]

TIC in June 2018: The Questionable Collateral Aftermath of May 29

By |2018-08-17T17:34:53+00:00August 17th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There isn’t really any doubt what happened on May 29. It was a global collateral call. Bonds all over Earth were hugely bid, especially paper in Germany and America – the pristine of the pristine. This is pure liquidity risk, meaning that no matter your feelings on the long-term solvency of the US government (or [...]

TIC Confirms Pretty Much Everything

By |2018-07-18T17:39:55+00:00July 18th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Russian ruble has fared far and away much better than its EM peers. Compared to something like the Brazilian real, there is no comparison. The ruble has been relatively steady following an initial drop in April with the imposition of sanctions. April 19 came and went, and while that date is displayed prominently across [...]

Not Exactly Paradox, Reflation In Oil Deflation In Copper

By |2018-07-11T16:49:36+00:00July 11th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The PBOC really needn’t have conducted the last few of its RRR raises. By the time they were in the books, Chinese inflation was already well underway toward being tamed. Though their CPI wouldn’t register for a few more months still, peaking in July 2011, commodities had already turned decidedly downward. Copper went first, hitting [...]

There Is Only One Global Trade War

By |2018-06-27T12:22:14+00:00June 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

IHS Markit reported last week that its composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rebounded slightly in its first reading for June 2018. In January, the index had managed nearly 59, the highest in a very long time. It was taken as a definitive sign that Europe’s economy was not only booming, that boom was sustainable. Global [...]

China Reopens With Another Sneeze

By |2018-06-19T19:22:00+00:00June 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it seemed a bit calmer yesterday in global markets than has become typical, it was likely due to the absence of Chinese influence. China’s markets were closed for the country’s annual Dragon Boat festival, a holiday tradition that supposedly dates back 2,000 years. According to state media, it’s not strictly Chinese any longer. The [...]

Is Reflation #3 Over? Some Important Data Is Pointing Toward That Possibility

By |2018-06-19T13:28:42+00:00June 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As a starting point, the TIC data is enormously helpful. Not only does it provide some badly needed level of detail, the series’ focus is right in the area where everything matters. Ostensibly about Treasuries being bought and sold in foreign places, quite by accident the Treasury Department has captured an introductory measure of offshore [...]

TIC in March

By |2018-05-18T16:19:34+00:00May 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When we last left off with the TIC data, the figures showed pretty clearly Japan’s retreat from “dollar” dealing during January and February. Global liquidations occurred during January and February. Therefore, it was reasonable to speculate upon Japanese origins of those liquidations. That wasn’t the only interesting development revealed by TIC. Over in Hong Kong, [...]

Can We Blame Japan For The Liquidations (and HKD)? Right Now It Sure Seems That Way

By |2018-04-18T18:17:59+00:00April 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

February was a very interesting month, wasn’t it? There was the pause or even end of the inflation hysteria driven home by “unexpected” liquidations in markets all over the world. On top of those, LIBOR-OIS blew out and all the absurd explanations put forth for it, and even outright lies. Needless to say (write), I’ve [...]