trade balance

Factory Orders, Too

By |2017-10-05T16:51:45-04:00October 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It stands to reason that if US demand for foreign goods is weak because of high inventory levels, then demand for domestic goods will be, too. As noted earlier, US imports are down this year after being substantially higher during the last half of last year. The same pattern to a varying degree is unsurprisingly being exhibited in the domestic [...]

The Damage Started Months Before Harvey And Irma

By |2017-10-05T16:16:29-04:00October 5th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ahead of tomorrow’s payroll report the narrative is being set that it will be weak because of Harvey and Irma. Historically, major storms have had a negative effect on the labor market. Just as auto sales were up sharply in September very likely because of the hurricane(s) and could remain that way for several months, payrolls could be weak for [...]

‘Something’ Is Still Out There

By |2017-09-06T13:17:37-04:00September 6th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In January 2016, just as the wave of “global turmoil” was cresting on domestic as well as foreign shores, retired Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was giving a series of lectures for the IMF. His topic wasn’t really the so-called taper tantrum of 2013 but it really was. Even ideologically blinded economists like Bernanke could see how one might have [...]

Questions Persist About China Trade

By |2017-06-08T18:47:17-04:00June 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese trade statistics were for May 2017 better than expected by economists, but on the export side questions remain as to their accuracy. Earlier this year discrepancies between estimates first published by the General Administration of Customs (GAC), those you find reported in the media, and what is captured by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), backed up by data [...]

Lackluster Trade, China April Edition

By |2017-05-08T11:58:00-04:00May 8th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s trade statistics for April 2017 uniformly disappointed. They only did so, however, because expectations are being calibrated as if the current economy is actually different. It is instead merely swinging between bouts of contraction and low-grade growth, but so low-grade it really doesn’t qualify as growth. Positive numbers do get the mind racing, but since the end of 2011 [...]

What Was Chinese Trade in March?

By |2017-04-13T16:52:34-04:00April 13th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As with all statistics, there are discrepancies that from time to time may obscure the meaning or validity of the particular estimate in question. For the vast majority of the time, any such uncertainties amount to very little. Overall, harmony among the major accounts reduces the signal noise from any one featuring a significant inconsistency. There are, of course, various [...]

The No Growth In US Trade Does Matter

By |2016-11-30T16:49:14-05:00November 30th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While certain markets continue to dream of the economy that might be, we continue to be stuck with the economy that continues to be nothing like it. Last week the Census Bureau reported that exports fell slightly year-over-year in September 2016 after rising slightly in August for the first positive number in two years. On the import side, marginal US [...]

Maybe Economists Should Just Throw Darts Rather Than Keep Searching For The Magic Number

By |2016-08-18T17:27:58-04:00August 18th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the primary points of emphasis with regard to Japan’s QQE was the yen itself. Pushing the value down, even by misconceptions about what central banks do, was supposed to simultaneously increase inflation pressures via the currency translation while also stimulating the export sector to a sufficient degree that Japan Inc. would be reborn and share the nominal gains [...]

Weakness in the Global Economy; Japan Edition

By |2016-03-17T16:55:38-04:00March 17th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Setting aside all other considerations and doubts about QQE, there was one factor that was supposed to be unassailable. That was the yen. QQE as a “money printing” operation was understood to act heavily on the exchange value of the Japanese currency so that it would drastically alter the competitive pricing of Japanese goods in Japan’s favor. From that point, [...]

Potemkin on the Pacific

By |2015-04-22T15:01:13-04:00April 22nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first time since June 2012 Japan has attained a trade surplus. It is, however, premature to interpret that as an end to the impoverishment the island has undertaken these past three years, the last two under QQE. There are various reasons for the end of the negative trade imbalance, but the most significant surround the Chinese New Year. [...]

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