It all became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I've ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the complete opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every aspect of life, be it something to wear, something to eat... It's all been wrong. Every one. [...]
In the earliest days of the eurodollar, its purpose was primarily as a global reserve medium to intermediate and finance trade. To surmount Triffin’s Paradox, this ledger system arose as demand for the reserve currency outstripped the Bretton Woods arrangement’s ability to supply it (because it was constrained by US gold reserves). Rebuilding first from WWII and then an explosion [...]
When I first got in this business oh-so-many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn't waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I've related in these missives before, he called those things "well-worried". His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into the market and not worth [...]
It's been a slow turnin' From the inside out A slow turnin' But you come about Slow learnin' But you learn to sway A slow turnin' baby Not fade away Now I'm in my car I got the radio on I'm yellin' at the kids in the back 'Cause they're bangin' like Charlie Watts Slow Turning by [...]
Stocks have stumbled into October with the S&P 500 down about 6% as I write this. The source of equity investors' angst is always hard to pinpoint and this is no exception but this correction doesn't seem to be due to concerns about economic growth. At least not directly. The most common explanation for the pullback in stocks - 6% [...]
This will be a fairly quick update as I just posted a Mid-Year Review yesterday that covers a lot of the same ground. There were, as you'll see below, some fairly positive reports since the last update but the markets are not responding to the better data. Markets seem to be more focused on the trade wars and the potential [...]
After an incredible run, up nearly 10% in just four months, imports took a break in January 2018. Year-over-year, not seasonally-adjusted, imports gained 9.5%, a rate that is better than experienced during the similar upturn in 2014 but still well short of what the rest of the world requires for global growth. The fact that almost all of that gain [...]
Economic Reports Production Production ended the year on a strong note but early readings from January are not as positive. The December industrial production report headline was strong at a 0.9% gain but a lot of that strength was in the mining (oil drilling) and utility sectors. Mining has actually led the way the last year as rig count has [...]
Economic Reports Employment We received several employment related reports in the first two weeks of the year. The rate of growth in employment has been slowing for some time - slowly - and these reports continue that trend. The JOLTS report showed a drop in job openings, hires and quits. The Fed has been talking about a tight labor market [...]
If one were to measure the US economy by what it is, right now, there would be so little growth or activity as to question the actual cycle. In fact, about the only factor that seems to be out of recession is the expectation for the second half of the year (which is already trimmed from the “slump” sticking to [...]
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