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trade war

The Real Trade War

By |2019-05-06T16:13:34-04:00May 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The competition was fierce. Vying for the eventual affections of Indonesia’s traveling public, Japan and China were locked into an auction of one-upmanship. Businesses from both countries had submitted bids to build the first high speed rail line in the growing emerging market center. As a first step, there would be bullet train service between Jakarta and Bandung. Ultra-fast trains [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:07:24-04:00August 1st, 2018|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY. Interest rates are on the rise again, the 10-year Treasury yield punching through 3% again this morning. [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Welcome To The Slowdown

By |2019-10-23T15:09:12-04:00July 6th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Welcome to the slowdown. It isn't much - yet - and it may just be a passing phase, but there is little doubt that the US economy has slowed somewhat. The rise in short term interest rates has stalled and the long end of the curve has rallied. The result is a flatter yield curve but it isn't the flatness [...]

China, Hurricanes, Inflation; The Inventory Projection

By |2018-04-10T17:35:30-04:00April 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales, seasonally adjusted, bounced back moderately in February 2018 after a sharp decline (revised even lower) in January. Sales in the latest monthly figures are left still lower than in December and only slightly more than in November. This is the familiar aftermath of Harvey and Irma’s aftermath. Unadjusted, year-over-year wholesale sales increased by just 6.9%. As the storm [...]

US Imports Don’t Quite Match Chinese Exports

By |2018-04-06T18:18:06-04:00April 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In early 2015, a contract dispute between dockworkers’ unions and 29 ports on the West Coast of the US escalated into what was a slowdown strike. Cargoes piled up especially at some of the largest facilities like those in Oakland, LA, and Long Beach, threatening substantial economic costs far and away from just those directly involved. Each side predictably blamed [...]

A Trade War Off These Import Figures?

By |2018-03-07T15:49:15-05:00March 7th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After an incredible run, up nearly 10% in just four months, imports took a break in January 2018. Year-over-year, not seasonally-adjusted, imports gained 9.5%, a rate that is better than experienced during the similar upturn in 2014 but still well short of what the rest of the world requires for global growth. The fact that almost all of that gain [...]

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