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treasuries

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Attention Shoppers

By |2019-10-23T15:09:53-04:00July 16th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

The majority of the economic reports over the last two weeks have been disappointing, less than the consensus expectations. The minor rebound in activity we've been tracking since last summer appears to have stalled. Retail sales continue to disappoint and inventory/sales ratios are once again rising - from already elevated levels. Even the positive reports were clouded by negative undertones. [...]

Memories of 2a7 Fade, But Commercial Paper Remains Relevant Anyway

By |2017-01-20T18:22:17-05:00January 20th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If you are an enterprising financial firm with spare cash toward the end of the business day, you have several options for it. Primary among them is the Fed’s Reverse Repo (RRP) desk which will pay you 50 bps interest with your cash secured by both the reputation of the Federal Reserve as well as UST collateral. Given that option, [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2016-06-26T13:53:52-04:00June 26th, 2016|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets|

Economic Reports Scorecard While everyone was focused on the potentially negative impact of Brexit, the Census Bureau was reporting evidence of actual economic weakness in the form of the durable goods report. The report was weak pretty much across the board but the weakness in autos is particularly concerning. The auto industry, along with construction, has been a leader in [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2016-04-01T16:24:56-04:00April 1st, 2016|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economic Reports Scorecard The economic reports since the last update present a dichotomy. While there has been an improvement in the surprises - more better than expected reports - the overall tone of the reports has been fairly negative. Part of the explanation for that is the plethora of regional Fed reports over the last two weeks, almost all of [...]

Not A Done Deal

By |2015-11-08T18:29:21-05:00November 8th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Last week's employment report raised the odds of a December rate hike considerably and the consensus at this point seems to be that it is a done deal. The employment report was pretty good with the unemployment rate down to 5%, 271,000 jobs added and a pay hike to boot. Year over year average hourly earnings are now up 2.4%, [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2015-10-23T14:31:29-04:00October 23rd, 2015|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Economic Reports Scorecard – 10/12/15 to 10/24/15 The bifurcated nature of the economy is on display for all to see in the economic data from the last two weeks. Manufacturing continues to struggle as shown by the Fed surveys, the CFNAI, IP and inventories. Meanwhile, housing continues to improve in both the existing home and new home side of the [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2015-09-25T14:07:56-04:00September 25th, 2015|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Economic Reports Scorecard – 9/14/15 to 9/25/15 If you want a good explanation for why the Fed didn't hike interest rates last week, just take a look at all the red in that chart. They might have cited international concerns but the reality is that the US economic data isn't all that robust either. Okay, things aren't as bad as [...]

Don’t Fight The Market

By |2015-06-21T16:34:53-04:00June 21st, 2015|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

An old Wall Street saying opines that one shouldn't "fight the Fed" and it is said to be good advice. The popular belief about this saying is that it means one should embrace risk when the Fed is easing because ultimately the goal of the easing (more growth) will be accomplished. When the Fed is tightening one should shun risk, assuming that [...]

UST Warning In Vivid Detail

By |2014-10-27T14:52:02-04:00October 27th, 2014|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Almost two weeks after the event, there is still more than a little nervousness about what took place on October 15 in UST trading – and for very good reason. Up to that point, proclamations about systemic liquidity degradations were just theoretical to most people. The reason was, and continues to be, that nobody seems to care about disruptions in [...]

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