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Macro: Flash PMI — US, EU, Japan, UK, Australia

By |2023-10-24T14:04:22-04:00October 24th, 2023|Economy|

The initial print for October was good in the US. Europe continues to struggle. Japan weakens slightly. The UK flat-lines below 50. Australia drops. Numbers above 50 should indicate an economy is growing. FWIW, this data has been very choppy and even enigmatic. Composite Output Index US -- 51, up from 50.2 (a 3 month high) Eurozone -- 46.5, down [...]

Being Specific About Dollar Specifics

By |2021-01-11T19:21:19-05:00January 11th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last week, IHS Markit reported that sentiment in Mexico’s factory sector had slipped again during December 2020. The organization’s manufacturing PMI had declined for the second straight month, having peaked recently back in October. Even then, the index hadn’t yet come close to crossing the magic 50 dividing line. The best it had managed during this global rebound was a [...]

Impossible Hawks

By |2018-09-26T16:09:57-04:00September 26th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 8, 1940, Winston Churchill wrote to Franklin Roosevelt. The situation was indeed grim, France having fallen to the Germans and the United Kingdom pushed right off Continental Europe. Defeats in the Pacific were some of the worst in the long history of the British Nation. The battle was now raging over English skies, the island isolated in every [...]

To The Asian ‘Dollar’, And Then What?

By |2017-04-24T16:13:46-04:00April 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bretton Woods system was intentionally set up to funnel monetary convertibility through official channels. The primary characteristic of any true gold standard is that any person who wishes can change paper claims into hard money. It was as much true in any one country as between those bound by the same legal framework (property). What might differ were the [...]

Currency Chaos (Con’t)

By |2017-01-17T15:58:12-05:00January 17th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are a great many great things afoot, so it might be understandable some transferred excitement (or dread) into the realm of global currencies. The British are set to leave the European Union, though nobody really knows what that means let alone what it might lead to. While the US was closed for MLK remembrances, sterling was all over the [...]

Does The Flash Crash In Sterling Prove China’s Absence All Relating To The Precarious State of ‘Dollars’?

By |2016-10-07T11:29:57-04:00October 7th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On January 10, the South African rand crashed about 9% in just a matter of minutes. It was the largest move for the currency since October 2008, an ominous yet poignant sign of just how bad everything was globally at that time. CNY had been pummeled up until the PBOC acted but a few days before. Even though the world [...]

Two Times Was Convincing; Five, Maybe Six Times Cannot Be Coincidence

By |2016-07-12T13:18:13-04:00July 12th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

People are often mistaken for thinking the eurodollar is somehow related to the euro, but that is in many ways quite understandable. In reality, the eurodollar system is shorthand for a global, offshore monetary regime that is dominated by “dollars” but includes every major currency. Thus, the participants in these currency markets are usually the same banks, meaning that if [...]

‘Selling Dollars’ Again

By |2016-06-20T18:40:08-04:00June 20th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With the sudden interjection of uncertainty halting the surge in Brexit odds since the unfortunate attack on British MP Jo Cox last week, the financial world has benefitted from the pound’s resurrection. Sterling has had a very good couple of days in this reversal, especially today. As it rises it adds the same as we saw on the day of [...]

Complicated And Often Tortured Plumbing Behind ‘Selling UST’

By |2016-02-17T19:17:06-05:00February 17th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While the eurodollar system has attained the full functions of a banking system in parallel to (and in many ways superseding) the onshore dollar version, at its core remains its primary purpose as a means to solve global payments. It is the idea of the dollar replacing gold and sterling, the reserve currency. The difference in recognizing the eurodollar as [...]

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