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uncertainty

Weekly Market Pulse: Risk, Uncertainty & Opportunity

By |2022-06-06T09:24:03-04:00June 6th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Dimon says brace for U.S. economic 'hurricane' due to inflation "It's a hurricane," Dimon told a banking conference, adding that the current situation is unprecedented. "Right now, it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's [...]

Zombie Insurance, Or Not

By |2020-02-24T17:01:25-05:00February 24th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s another example of the difficulties in trying to evaluate and analyze non-economic factors. China’s virus outbreak is a nightmare for those unfortunately living through it, and Chinese officials aren’t doing themselves any favors. Trust is a sketchy enough concept. The WHO today says there is no pandemic, which, as Erik Townsend of MacroVoices points out, immediately puts this announcement [...]

The Long Running Circus of Uncertainty Circles Back

By |2019-04-10T16:37:28-04:00April 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Most of the best circuses used to have three main rings. Nowadays, we can only get the occasional show for two on the same day. It is a rare treat when central bankers from two major jurisdictions compete for the world’s misapprehending attention. Today is one of those days: Mario Draghi and the ECB as the warmup act for the [...]

Wasting the Middle: Obsessing Over Exits

By |2018-12-26T17:07:58-05:00December 26th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What was the difference between Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers? Well, for one thing Lehman’s failure wasn’t a singular event. In the heady days of September 2008, authorities working for any number of initialism agencies were busy trying to put out fires seemingly everywhere. Lehman had to compete with an AIG as well as a Wachovia, already preceded by a [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update: The Certainty of Uncertainty

By |2019-10-23T15:07:28-04:00April 13th, 2018|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Stocks continued their erratic ways since the last update with another test of the February lows that are holding - for now. While we believe growth expectations are moderating somewhat (see the Bi-Weekly Economic [...]

Will They Or Won’t They?

By |2015-09-07T16:36:49-04:00September 7th, 2015|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

That's the question everyone is asking these days. Will the Fed go ahead and raise interest rates at their next meeting? Or is the economy still so soft they don't dare derail what recovery we've managed to attain? Was last week's employment report good enough to keep the Fed on track to do what they seem to think they need [...]

Digging In To The Mess of Fund Flows

By |2014-05-12T15:55:44-04:00May 12th, 2014|Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

I normally don’t pay much attention to mutual fund flows as they don’t have nearly the explanatory power or relevance in what is surely a more complicated and topographically inconsistent “market.” Equity mutual funds are no longer the primary measurement tool of “small” investor demand. That does not mean, however, that unusual events cannot contain something more than passing interest [...]

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