unemployment rate

Bond JOLTS Without Wages To Back Just JO

By |2018-09-11T17:46:59+00:00September 11th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the absence of a booming economy, one has been conjured from a select few employment statistics. The catalog, beginning in 2014, consisted of a rapidly falling unemployment rate, the Establishment Survey which dazzled with headline payroll growth supposedly adding up to the “best jobs market in decades”, and the JOLTS series but curiously omitting [...]

It’s A Dollar-based Boom Shortage More Than Anything

By |2018-09-06T17:33:38+00:00September 6th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Liquidity preferences are one of the least discussed economic concepts. There are several channels into which monetary instability can hamper the real economy. A “dollar” squeeze doesn’t just impact banks, they often pass it along further down the economic chain. In its most extreme form, we had something like 2009. Some of the best companies [...]

Unhappy Labor (Day)

By |2018-09-04T13:04:16+00:00September 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In November 1929, faced with the growing prospects for serious economic reverse, President Herbert Hoover gathered the heads of major American industrial businesses to confer at the White House. Primary on his agenda was wages. For workers, depression was simple. Work was hard to find but more than that what labor might be exchanged would [...]

Payrolls: Deadly Low

By |2018-08-03T13:00:17+00:00August 3rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economists say that the labor market is being restrained by secular factors, those outside of regular macro potential. These are opioid use, demographic changes toward an older population, and the downside effects of globalization as it alters the skills required by employers. Between drug addicts, retiring Baby Boomers, and lazy Americans who won’t go back [...]

Falling Starts

By |2018-07-18T15:32:04+00:00July 18th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Home construction estimates are notoriously variable. They can change oftentimes by a substantial amount on a month-by-month basis, and the numbers are just as frequently subject to serious revisions in the short run. Still, we have to note when there are big moves even in these high frequency series, though keeping in mind no definitive [...]

The Last Boiling Frog Gave Birth To The Modern Unemployment Rate

By |2018-06-20T16:27:36+00:00June 20th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The origins of the modern unemployment rate were, of course, political in nature. Before, the question was simple: you were either employed or you weren’t. There weren’t so many various stages of condition, a gradation that today is as enthusiastically applied to the very definition of the labor force itself. In August 1937, Congress finally [...]

The Unemployment Rate Is Useless, But That Doesn’t Mean It Isn’t Useful

By |2018-06-01T18:15:50+00:00June 1st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At a campaign rally in New Mexico in May 2016, Presidential Candidate Donald Trump returned to one of his favorite themes. It was a package deal. He first talked about NAFTA and what he considered the negative effects the trade agreement had had on American workers. That easily segued into what had by then become [...]