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unemployment rate

As The Fed Tapers: What If More Rapid (published) Wage Increases Are Actually Evidence of *Deflationary* Conditions?

By |2022-01-03T20:16:51-05:00January 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Since the Federal Reserve is not in the money business, their recent hawkish shift toward an increasingly anti-inflationary stance is a twisted and convoluted case of subjective interpretation. Inflation is money and if the Fed was a central bank the issue of consumer prices wouldn’t necessarily be simple, it would, however, be much simpler: is there or isn’t there too [...]

The Repeating Tides of Payroll And Inflation

By |2021-12-03T16:26:29-05:00December 3rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There were all kinds of good news in the August payroll report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics would publish an acceleration in headline numbers, just about every one of them. The Establishment Survey “surged”, wage growth registered its largest annual increase in nearly a decade, while one broad measure of slack, U-6, tumbled to its lowest point since the start [...]

Inflation Just Doesn’t Pass Math

By |2021-11-12T16:59:47-05:00November 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the first time since last December, the level of Job Openings (JO) pictured by the BLS’s JOLTS survey declined. End of the line for the economy?I am intentionally overselling this monthly minus. While the latest figure for September 2021 was indeed less than the one for August, if only because August’s estimate was raised by several hundred thousand. Going [...]

What ‘Growth’ May Be ‘Scaring’ The Labor Force

By |2021-11-05T19:05:53-04:00November 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is one of the most important results to look for, a payroll cue which opens up the question to much bigger issues. A recession or any serious downturn registers with employers first when they feel the need to cut back on labor. As the biggest input cost and cash flow commitment, nothing more than plain common sense.Once past some [...]

Retracing The Yield Gap For The Unemployment Rate Isn’t The Same Thing

By |2021-10-19T19:54:13-04:00October 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Thomas Barkin is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve’s Fifth District branch headquartered in Richmond. Beginning the job during the tumultuous and confusing 2018 (for those wherever at the Fed), Barkin in 2021 is and has been a voting FOMC member. Whether he is judged a “hawk”, “dove”, or some other kind of feathering maniac I’d leave to the [...]

For The Love Of Unemployment Rates

By |2021-10-08T18:19:36-04:00October 8th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Here we are again. The labor force. The numbers from the BLS are simply staggering. During September 2021, the government believes it shrank for another month, down by 183,000 when compared to August. This means that the Labor Force Participation rate declined slightly to 61.6%, practically the same level in this key metric going back to June.Last June.These millions, yes, [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Time For A Taper Tantrum?

By |2021-09-20T08:23:10-04:00September 19th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to say that it is talking about maybe reducing bond purchases sometime later this year or maybe next year or at least, someday. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at which he'll tell us that markets have nothing to worry about because even if they taper QE, interest rates aren't [...]

Just In Time For Labor Day: It’s Not Payrolls Missing The Mark By Such A Wide Margin

By |2021-09-03T18:02:37-04:00September 3rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a highly curious change in the shape of the labor force. Beginning October 2015 and lasting until March 2016, for six months Americans came flooding back into the labor market. Or, so they said. When the BLS’s various surveyors working on the Current Population Survey (known as the Household Survey) came calling for answers each month, all of [...]

The Fed’s True Love: He Tapers Me, He Tapers Me Not

By |2021-08-27T15:41:36-04:00August 27th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They were doing so well, or at least not quite as bad as throughout the prior several decades. Through this year’s 5% CPI’s, Federal Reserve policymakers stuck to their gut not their heart. Transitory factors. Right call (as we’ll see in a minute). That won’t be their mistake. On the contrary, these Economists (central bankers are all Economists nowadays, and [...]

No Inflation In These Payrolls

By |2021-07-02T17:18:26-04:00July 2nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Payrolls for the month of June were a mixed bag, in that the payroll data was better than expected at the same time nothing else was. After a couple months of ho-hum gains for the Establishment Survey, government hiring (mostly) boosted the latest monthly figure to +853,000. This brings the 6-month average up to +543,000, which is either really good [...]

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