There is no argument that the New Deal of the 1930’s completely changed the political situation in America, including the fundamental relationship of the government to its people. The way it came about was entirely familiar, a sense from among a large (enough) portion of the general population that the paradigm of the time no longer worked. It was only [...]
Can we finally put to rest all notions that the US economy is at full employment and doing well, and therefore wage inflation is right around the corner? I suspect not. This dance has been ongoing for years now, continuing through what was nearly a recession, so there is little reason to believe that economists are so data dependent. The [...]
Since Q1 GDP was revised lower by almost 1% that meant estimates of productivity were going to be even more out of alignment than they were at the first release. Of course, in a less massaged environment productivity might have preserved some sense if there was less rigidity from the BLS on the employment side. In other words, when “output” [...]
One graph tells the story: Think about that for just a minute. Unemployment is over 8% and yet unit labor costs are almost back to their all time high. If the goal is to reduce unemployment the obvious way to do that is to reduce the cost of employment. For whatever reason, that isn't happening. Why not? What this [...]
Is the Greek debt crisis over? Based on the stock market reaction last week one is tempted to say, yes, finally the Greek problem has been solved. Stocks sold off early in the week when it looked as if the deal might not be fully subscribed but recovered as European leaders managed to twist enough arms to get the deal [...]
Most investors focused today on the employment report from ADP which showed a gain of over 200k jobs. The more interesting - and I think significant - report came 15 minutes later when the BLS released revised figures for 4th quarter productivity and unit labor costs. From Econoday: Productivity growth for the fourth quarter was bumped up slightly and in [...]
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