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Global Trade Case(s) Behind Global ‘Growth Scare’

By |2021-12-07T18:41:14-05:00December 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Census Bureau today reported that US imports of goods and services reached a record monthly high of $290.7 billion in October 2021. Just goods alone, the figure was $241.1 billion, which was 11% greater than the previous peak set way back in October 2018. With (questionable) media accounts continuing to highlight West Coast port traffic, there may not [...]

Is The Negativity Overdone?

By |2019-09-09T18:45:25-04:00September 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s more to come. As Bloomberg [...]

The Global Squeeze; US, Canada, China

By |2019-04-30T12:14:20-04:00April 30th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ever since the first major outbreaks of Euro$ #4 last year, the balance of data has tipped further and further toward the minuses. Yesterday was a big one. US income growth in 2019 is no longer growth. Not huge declines, but minus signs where, if the prior boom narrative had been valid, large plus signs should rule unchallenged. The business [...]

IMF Finally Kills The Recovery (Narrative)

By |2016-10-04T17:50:18-04:00October 4th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When we talk about or estimate long run growth rates, we intend to encompass entire cycles. In other words, whatever the long run average of real GDP growth, for instance, it takes into account both recession and recovery to harmonize into what would be a constant trend or potential. From that view, we would expect that while growth would be [...]

Money And Inflation; In Evidence

By |2016-08-03T18:38:19-04:00August 3rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

By experience of different kinds and settings of balance sheet expansion in the United States, Europe, and Japan, we can only conclude that monetary policy with these intentions has no effect, direct or otherwise, on inflation in each of these jurisdictions. The varied forms and exact nature of central bank execution allows us a broad and nearly comprehensive examination of [...]

Money And Inflation; Japanese Evidence

By |2016-08-03T18:39:28-04:00August 3rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Offering the longest track record of balance sheet policy, the Bank of Japan should have been a cautionary tale for the central banks that have since followed. Unfortunately, ideology at the center of monetary policy in all jurisdictions leaves no room for objective interpretation such as this. Economists and policymakers (redundant) believe QE works, full stop. When it doesn’t, such [...]

Money And Inflation; European Evidence

By |2016-08-03T18:40:13-04:00August 3rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The ECB’s experimentation with balance sheet expansion, both as a matter of bank “reserves” and overall balance sheet size, encompasses at least two distinct episodes. The first began in earnest in May 2010 with the initial concerns being limited to Greece and eventually PIIGS nations, finally exploding in later 2011 as a full-blown crisis (and far more than euros, it [...]

Money And Inflation; US Evidence

By |2016-08-03T18:41:08-04:00August 3rd, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Yesterday’s publication of PCE and Personal Income also included the monthly update for the PCE Deflator, the Federal Reserve’s stated preference for measuring inflation in the economy. The June 2016 figures for the deflator were also negative in terms of both short and longer term perspectives. The year-over-year change in the index was just 0.88%, down slightly from 0.94% in [...]

The Biggest Cost? Wasting Time

By |2015-10-16T13:32:22-04:00October 16th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There probably should be a cottage industry trying to figure out what Albert Einstein actually said or wrote quite against what is typically attributed to him (or Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill and many others). One such nugget purported from his genius was that compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe. That is how the sentiment seems to [...]

It Took Three Decades, But Fears of Turning Japanese Are Closer Than Ever

By |2015-10-08T15:24:39-04:00October 8th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It may be unexpected to economists, but the sudden and uniform economic downside that is either appearing or strengthening almost everywhere in the world is closely tracking the wholesale “dollar.” In many cases, that flows through China and so is given that gloss, but there can be little doubt now about either cause or effect. In Japan, machine orders (a [...]

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