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university of michigan index of consumer sentiment

Macro: Consumer Sentiment

By |2023-12-25T13:30:35-05:00December 25th, 2023|Economy|

What's more pertinent? The index jumped 14% this month. The index has been in an uptrend for the last 18 months. The index is still weak relative to the last decade. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None [...]

Macro: Consumer Sentiment — 6 month low

By |2023-11-10T11:44:18-05:00November 10th, 2023|Economy|

The trend for consumer sentiment is still higher off the lows in the summer of 2022. But I am concerned about that trend. This month's preliminary number is 60.4. That is 4 monthly declines in a row and a new 6-month low. Additionally, inflation expectations ticked up to 4.4% from 4.2%. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only [...]

Macro: Consumer Sentiment

By |2023-10-16T13:29:47-04:00October 16th, 2023|Economy|

The consumer is pessimistic relative to history. There was a down tick from last month. We don't know if the down tick means anything. The same thing happened in May and the consumer became more optimistic over the next 3 months. The broader trend is still up off the historic lows at the of 2022.

Great News! Consumer Sentiment Is Awful!

By |2023-01-03T16:45:26-05:00January 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Research, Markets, Stocks|

I don't know how many times I've seen blog posts or articles or Tweets about negative consumer sentiment over the last year. These articles rightly point out that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is sitting near (or at a few months ago) 50 year lows. This fact is taken as a negative for the economy and therefore stocks. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Just A Little Volatility

By |2022-10-17T07:39:17-04:00October 16th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Markets were rather volatile last week. That's a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn't surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: There Is No Certainty In Investing

By |2022-07-18T07:52:41-04:00July 17th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Investors crave certainty. They want to know that there are definitive signals for them to follow as they adjust their investments to fit the current market and economy. They want to know that A leads to B leads to C. Tea leaf readers are always in high demand on Wall Street and they continue to find employment despite their almost [...]

Slowing Down, Yes, But To What?

By |2021-10-15T22:57:21-04:00October 15th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A couple of Economists have caused some noise by reviewing consumer confidence estimates in the United States, associating big declines in them with imminent recession, and then pointing out such substantial drops in both of the major consumer sentiment surveys just recently. If valid, their correlations would seem to suggest a US contraction.We’re meant to take these seriously for one [...]

The Consensus

By |2021-04-16T19:51:39-04:00April 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With government cash being shoveled into personal and corporate bank accounts, US consumers have reported that they are being more optimistic about the state of the economy. Before that, they went on a spending binge as stated unequivocally by historic retail sales figures. Why, then, so much higher spending than improved happiness and certainty while going about it?The University of [...]

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