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university of michigan surveys of consumer sentiment

A Whole Lot On Consumers

By |2022-03-08T20:15:57-05:00March 8th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’ve seen the combination of last year’s over-ordering together with some improvement in the transportation of goods become this year’s record surge (some of this prices) for inventories. Across the supply chain, retailers have been hit with the most recently but there’s been excessive builds for wholesalers, too, along with manufacturers. This potential problem compounds if or when consumer sales [...]

The Third Of The Transitory Inflation Trifecta And Today’s Surprisingly Consistent Ugly Surprise

By |2021-08-13T17:44:40-04:00August 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Fitting, in a way, that with so much having come out this week, the 10-year Treasury yield would end it at almost exactly the same price/yield as it began. In between, another epic CPI, ’74-style PPI commodities, and now rounding out the BLS inflation trifecta today was the fourth straight double-digit gain (year-over-year) in import prices. To the latter, the [...]

The Important Parts Of The CPI; Backward Looking

By |2016-10-18T16:31:53-04:00October 18th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As I argued earlier, the 2-year change in the CPI (or PCE Deflator) is a useful assessment of not just inflation but money in general. It verifies in no uncertain terms what we suspect about “stimulus.” It is not just rare but practically unheard of where the inflation rate drops and then stays there. Yet, inflation has done so now [...]

The Important Parts Of The CPI; Time

By |2016-10-18T12:41:25-04:00October 18th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The headline CPI accelerated to 1.46% year-over-year in September, the highest calculated inflation rate for this index since October 2014. That was up from 1.06% in August and seemingly quite different than the -0.04% last September. To many, that looks like and is believed to be progress, an end to the drag of the dollar and oil. In many ways [...]

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