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The Ritual of Summer

By |2016-07-27T16:29:12-04:00July 27th, 2016|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Domestic oil inventory rose in the latest week, updates from the US EIA show. That build broke a streak of nine consecutive weekly draws dating back to mid-May. It is not unusual for oil inventory to rise and fall in various weeks, but given the mechanics of oil prices of late there is an atypical edge and attention to any [...]

Evolving Characteristics Don’t Seem To Alter The Ritual of Summer

By |2016-07-27T14:16:11-04:00July 27th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On February 6, 2008, oil prices (WTI) dropped to $87.16, the lowest price since the prior October. Oil had been rising as the market misunderstood and dramatically mispriced what was going on; buying on the idea of monetary policy accommodation in growing intensity, while at the same time not factoring the hidden monetary destruction that was far greater. It was [...]

Trying to Calibrate Fragmentation

By |2015-12-29T17:28:48-05:00December 29th, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Repo rates were once again today above the upper “ceiling” of the FOMC’s intended corridor, marking three consecutive trading days exploring territory not meant to be reserved for secured overnight lending. The MBS GC rate hit 60 bps, surging with agency GC likewise nearing 60 bps. The UST rate fell slightly but remained just above the 50 bps upper limit. [...]

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