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A Tale of Two Recoveries; And The Visible End of One

By |2015-10-26T15:52:57-04:00October 26th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If central banks are now almost exclusively on the defensive, we have no shortage of anecdotes and data to explain it. For a good long while economists and commentary managed to keep the US safely “decoupled” from the “overseas” maelstrom, but the deluge locally has become far too much to ignore. This is far, far deeper than just some indistinct [...]

Maybe IBM Should’ve Bought The Whole ‘Cloud’ Rather Than Itself

By |2014-10-20T14:58:00-04:00October 20th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

IBM blames the cloud for its dismal results, but the fact is that IBM should own the cloud outright (figuratively, of course). If the business has changed so much in the past few years due to customer shifting, then why wasn’t IBM leading that process? Why are they now actually admitting what amounts to a dereliction of managerial duties? Since [...]

Where Have All The Bellwethers Gone?

By |2014-02-13T12:44:40-05:00February 13th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The term “bellwether” is derived from Middle English and the practice of placing a bell on a castrated ram (wether) as he led his flock from place to place. That way, no matter the weather or topography, a shepherd would have a good idea where the flock was located and where they were going by listening for the sound of [...]

No Hiding From Revenues

By |2013-07-23T16:29:17-04:00July 23rd, 2013|Markets|

Earnings season is in full bloom and markets care little about the details as long headlines continue to provide optimism. That’s a pretty low bar since “beating” estimates is a rigged game. However, revenues are much more difficult to tailor by accounting conventions, so they offer a more reliable (not perfect) window into the fundamental circumstances of each company. We [...]

UPS Guides Into Economic Reality

By |2013-07-15T15:48:05-04:00July 15th, 2013|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

At the end of January 2013, UPS management patted themselves for company’s results in an admittedly tough environment. In between regular allusions to “strong” numbers and operational tendencies, Chairman and CEO D. Scott Davis wrapped it all up in the positive: “Although we fell short of our goals for the year, we did achieve record earnings per share.” The dichotomy [...]

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