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Weekly Market Pulse: Much Ado About Not Much

By |2023-04-17T09:06:33-04:00April 17th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I sit down every week to write these updates and sometimes it is a struggle to find something - anything - worth writing about. Sure, there's always market "news" so I can find something to fill the page and I hope you find it interesting but the fact is that I don't think any investor - as opposed to trader [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Peaking? Already?

By |2021-04-26T08:09:23-04:00April 25th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

April 15th was the two-week anniversary of the day my wife and I got our second Moderna shot. We have spent the last 13 months being very careful about the virus, limiting our contacts, social distancing, and generally doing anything that seemed helpful. I am certainly aware that others took a more liberal attitude as is their right. But, for [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update:

By |2019-10-23T15:07:29-04:00February 7th, 2018|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Stocks|

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Despite the selloff of the last week I don't believe any portfolio action is warranted. While the overbought condition has largely been corrected now, the S&P 500 is far from the opposite condition, [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

By |2019-10-23T15:09:47-04:00November 7th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than the most recent 3.1% and [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Has The Fed Heard Of Amazon?

By |2019-10-23T15:09:55-04:00June 18th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economic surprises keep piling up on the negative side of the ledger as the Fed persists in tightening policy or at least pretending that they are. If a rate changes in the wilderness can the market hear it? Outside of the stock market one would be hard pressed to find evidence of the effectiveness of all the Fed's extraordinary [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-05-08T14:59:51-04:00May 8th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies|

The economic reports since the last economic update were generally less than expected and disappointing. The weak growth of the last few years had been supported by autos and housing while energy has been a wildcard. When oil prices fell, starting in mid-2014 and bottoming in early 2016, economic growth suffered as the shale industry retrenched. I said during that [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2017-03-27T17:51:06-04:00March 27th, 2017|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The Fed did, as expected, hike rates at their last meeting. And interestingly, interest rates have done nothing but fall since that day. As I predicted in the last BWER, Greenspan's conundrum is making a comeback. The Fed can do whatever it wants with Fed funds - heck, barely anyone is using it anyway - but they can't control what [...]

Global Asset Allocation Update

By |2019-10-23T15:11:44-04:00February 12th, 2017|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

There hasn't been a lot of change in our indicators since the last update and therefore, despite my discomfort with the altitude of this stock market, there are no changes to the Global Asset Allocation this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50.  Bond markets moved around some during the [...]

Bi-Weekly Economic Review

By |2015-12-20T12:44:00-05:00December 20th, 2015|Alhambra Research, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Economic Reports Scorecard – 11/6/15 to 11/20/15 The incoming economic reports ran two to one negative over the last two weeks, continuing the trend we’ve seen all year. That’s one of the worst two week stretches we’ve seen all year. Janet Yellen has been telling us for over a year that changes in policy were “data dependent” but that is [...]

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