201712.05
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1

Reduced Trade Terms Salute The Flattened Curve

The Census Bureau reported earlier today that US imports of foreign goods jumped 9.9% year-over-year in October. That is the second largest increase since February 2012, just less than the 12% import growth recorded for January earlier this year. In both monthly cases, however, the almost normal rates of increase which would have at least…

201612.13
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A Five-year Further Slump Won’t/Can’t Be Cured Overnight

When US exports were reported a few months ago to have risen (slightly) in August 2016, it was widely expected that that increase was the start of many to follow. It was, after all, the first positive number on the export side since the end of 2014 after more than a year and a half…

201611.30
3
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The No Growth In US Trade Does Matter

While certain markets continue to dream of the economy that might be, we continue to be stuck with the economy that continues to be nothing like it. Last week the Census Bureau reported that exports fell slightly year-over-year in September 2016 after rising slightly in August for the first positive number in two years. On…

201608.08
2
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The Chinese Counterpoint To Payroll Friday

Under traditional “rules”, devaluing of a currency is supposed to bring about a measurable, even obvious increase in the export sector of the country undertaking the manipulation. The Japanese have been notorious for believing in the paradigm, and not just in the past four years under QQE and the whispers of it. Some people still…

201608.05
1
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The Far More Meaningful Counterpoint To Payroll Friday

In early 2005, the US Senate began debating a bill seeking to impose a broad 27.5% tariff on Chinese exports to the United States. Congress was emotionally moved by the supposed problem of pegging the yuan to the dollar, then at about 8.28 CNY for every USD. In reality, the problem wasn’t so much dollars…

201604.05
2
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Slowdown Continues; Lost Time Accumulates

US trade statistics for February improved in both exports and imports, but there are questions as to the reason for the reverse and whether it is actually meaningful. After abysmal performance in every segment and category in January, there was some give back in February including positive numbers in some places. That suggests that January’s…

201601.07
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The US Economy Restrains Itself; No Need For Monetary Policy Influence

The Census Bureau released its estimates for November US trade. It was yet another debacle for the FOMC narrative about an economy poised to overheat. November was the month in between the two FOMC meetings where they first declared (October) risks diminished and then (December) recovery conditions fully met. Instead, both exports and imports in…