There are three things the markets have going for them right now, and none of them have anything to do with the Federal Reserve. More and more conditions resemble the early thirties in that respect, meaning no respect for monetary powers. This isn’t to say we are repeating the Great Depression, only that the paths available to the system to [...]
Faced with severe economic distress and a global market meltdown, they promised that it would be big. Massive fiscal “stimulus”, however, might come at a price. In the short run it was necessary, according to the orthodox view. When a crisis shows up you don’t worry about how to pay for things. Once all is said and done, the current [...]
The Federal Reserve conducts reverse repo operations (RRP) daily, and has for more than half a decade. These are very different from the “liquidity” operations the central bank has been deploying since last year’s rumble in the repo market; the latter merely mimic a repo transaction and are intended to push bank reserves the Fed creates on the spot out [...]
The front end of the yield curve is flattened out near enough to zero. While the bill yields I noted this morning did not finish the day session with a negative, they were close and several have traded that way in the after hours session (as of this writing, the benchmark 3-month bill is -1 bps). This thing doesn’t end [...]
Negative Treasury rates are here. The front end of the yield curve fell below zero for the first time, the equivalent yield for the 4-week T-bill at -0.025% as I write this. The benchmark 3-month yield is straddling zero (while 3-month LIBOR jumps, as noted yesterday). These are not surprising developments. They are to Jay Powell and the people who [...]
Is it over? That’s the question everyone is asking about both major crises, the answer is more obvious for only the one. As it pertains to the pandemic, no, it is not. Still the early stages. The other crisis, the global dollar run? Not looking like it, either. Stocks rebounded because of “major helicopter stimulus” or because that’s just what [...]
The Fed unveiled what was supposed to be shock and awe. Instead, it was the predictable series of upsizing the bazookas, monetary armaments in name only. I’ll write it again: there is no money in monetary policy. Central banks are not central. That was the primary lesson of September’s repo rumble, and not for the first time since August 9, [...]
These numbers are essentially meaningless. They aren’t completely devoid of content, of course, just that such substance is of limited use. The Chinese have confirmed that their economy had shut down in the January-February period. The estimates for the Big 3 accounts were way below any and every consensus, thus demonstrating the severity of the disruption. First, the figures: Industrial [...]
In a week replete with chaotic movements and arrangements, a puzzle has emerged. Conventional wisdom says that when stocks tank bonds rally. While the latter takes place regardless of the former, during those times when the NYSE finally pays attention to what might be herding financial agents into safety instruments the bond market typically rallies even harder. It sure did [...]
Another day, another big risk-off move. And yet, the world's great end-of-world hedge, gold, is getting pummeled even as it seems the world is edging closer to its end. Yes, another day another clear demonstration of collateral scarcity - as opposed to bank reserve scarcity which isn't a thing (sorry, Jay). If you have a moment, check out the intraday [...]
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