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Real Dollar ‘Privilege’ On Display (again)

By |2021-04-07T20:04:14-04:00April 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Twenty-fifteen was an important yet completely misunderstood year. The Fed was going to have to become hawkish, according to its models, yet oil prices crashed and the dollar continued to rise. Both of those things were described as “transitory” by Janet Yellen, and that they were helpful or positive (rising dollar means cleanest dirty shirt!), but domestically American policymakers’ clear [...]

Eurodollar University: Way Beyond Bank Reserves

By |2018-05-22T18:35:14-04:00May 22nd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Crash of ’87 was a big deal, though not in the way most people remember. It was a stock market event, obviously, and those are the terms under which it has been understood. That’s not really its legacy, however, as the major shifts that began with Black Monday have had little and most often nothing to do with stocks [...]

The True And Hidden Menace of Liquidations

By |2016-01-20T16:50:50-05:00January 20th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today’s radical reversal in stocks notwithstanding, the continuing hits of liquidations are not achieving their settled ends. In purely financial terms, the entire process of liquidation is to renew a settled state. Local imbalances force restriction of financial resources (what used to be money but now is something recognizable as such but truly not money) which triggers a cascade of [...]

Within Or Without The Stock Bubble Matters A Great Deal

By |2015-09-11T14:16:15-04:00September 11th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

As doubts surrounding QE have grown, there has been a somewhat detectable if still small trend in central banker repentance. Alan Greenspan to an extent has embraced a more decentralized and market framework in his public comments even though he has yet, to my knowledge, actually repudiate his own work more directly. As noted a few days ago, former BoE [...]

Volatility As ‘Money’; Or Really Rising Vol As Anti-Money

By |2015-08-31T18:23:54-04:00August 31st, 2015|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I think it is worth re-examining at this point, with a lull in the “dollar” at the moment, the effects of dark leverage upon actual bank mechanics and thus actual “dollar” supply. The idea of liquidity in the wholesale system is multi-dimensional and often confusing as it relates to what is typically believed. For example, the week the world woke [...]

Reach For Yield Before Counted As ‘Money Supply’

By |2015-07-06T17:25:48-04:00July 6th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan and then Ben Bernanke has escaped, largely, responsibility for the panic in 2008 mostly because there is no direct link between monetary policy and the housing bubble. The most stinging criticism that comes out of the era is Greenspan’s “ultra-low” interest rate setting for federal funds, but there is no smoking gun in the [...]

Anecdotes on Eurodollar ‘Money Supply’; A Final Supplement

By |2015-06-29T16:47:02-04:00June 29th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While this was meant to be anecdotal, giving the whole rise and fall of eurodollars an actual feel through actual published bank results, the more abstract collections of the derivatives world conforms very well with those singular sketches in JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. The BIS, for example, publishes its estimates for the give and take of the gross notional [...]

Anecdotes on Eurodollar ‘Money Supply’; Part 4

By |2015-06-29T16:07:38-04:00June 29th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The early 1990’s saw the S&L’s fail on wholesale means but also to be displaced entirely by the GSE’s and securitizations of also wholesale monetarism. Indeed, when LTCM failed in 1998 rather than recognize the glaring limitations evident in the systemic pathology the Fed looked at it the way it wanted, preserving itself at the apex of political-economic planning and [...]

Anecdotes on Eurodollar ‘Money Supply’; Part 3

By |2015-06-29T16:03:31-04:00June 29th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In April 2013, Janet Yellen gave a speech still as the Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve. Her topic was communication, fitting in that it was given to the Society of American Business Editors and Writers. She expressed the evolution in Fed policy as it had changed since the more direct if silent beginnings in the early 20th century. Not [...]

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