201804.11
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Inflation Hysteria Takes Another Big Hit

As it turns out, those “transitory” inflation factors were worth only about 25 bps on the core CPI rate. This isn’t at all surprising and was as usual entirely predictable. But when you don’t have any answers there is a lamentable tendency toward denial or deliberate evasion, even if that leads toward the ridiculous. Base…

201801.12
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Good or Bad, But Surely Not Transitory

When Federal Reserve officials first started last year to mention wireless network data plans as a possible explanation for a fifth year of “transitory” factors holding back consumer price inflation, it seemed a bit transparent. One of the reasons for immediately doubting their sincerity was the history of that particular piece of the CPI (or…

201712.26 3

From ‘Definitely Transitory’ to ‘Imperfect Understanding’ In One Press Conference

When Janet Yellen spoke at her regular press conference following the FOMC decision in September 2017 to begin reducing the Fed’s balance sheet, the Chairman was forced to acknowledge that while the unemployment rate was well below what the central bank’s models view as inflationary it hadn’t yet shown up in the PCE Deflator. Of…

201706.19
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More Pieces of Impossible

On his company’s earnings conference call back on Valentine’s Day, T-Mobile CEO John Legere was unusually feisty. Never known for shyness, Legere had reason behind his bluster. T-Mobile had practically built itself up on price, being left the bottom tier of the wireless space practically to itself. That all changed, however, as both Verizon and…

201309.15
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Waiting On The Fed

Our long wait is nearly over. The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to announce a reduction in their purchases of Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities. The consensus seems to be that the Fed will reduce its purchases by $10-20 billion per month with the emphasis on reducing Treasury purchases. The reasoning is…

201309.12
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Verizon’s Taper Solution: Historic Valuation

Now that the massive Verizon debt offering has been priced and sent out to Wall Street’s infamous sales force (the big banks bought it so they could sell it to their customers), the recriminations can begin. It’s not just that the size of the offering was so disproportionate as to be consistent with market top-like…

201203.25
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Trend Watcher – End of Quarter Window Dressing Ahead

Joseph Gomez, Sr. Investment Adviser and Portfolio Manager As we close out the quarter next week, expect to see plenty of window dressing as portfolio managers want their clients to see that they have stocks on the books during such a strong quarter for the market. Window Dressing is a strategy used by mutual fund and portfolio managers…