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Reflation Or Economic Zombie Trading

By |2015-05-11T16:38:02-04:00May 11th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

With the “dollar” off the ledger as far as a menacing factor, perceptions have begun to shift toward different if still-confused rhetoric. Figuring out fixed income isn’t always straightforward to begin with, but as the “unexpected” flirtation with deflation over the past few months threw a huge wrench into the economic boom supposedly forming the world over, the temptation now [...]

Some BLS Doesn’t Match The Other BLS

By |2015-05-08T16:29:34-04:00May 8th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One more point for Payroll Friday: we have the productivity problem and the spending problem but there is also the wage problem. Despite what the raw, quantitative count of jobs is in the main surveys there are no wage gains associated with them. That is itself highly curious as wages overall have been locked into a narrow range since the [...]

Japan Needs A Bigger Hole?

By |2015-04-28T10:34:25-04:00April 28th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Japan continues to provide the best refutation of monetary policy as anything other than destructive. With its economy stripped bare of dynamic essentials after thirty years of the Bank of Japan’s “lead”, marginal changes are left as remnants of nothing more than monetary transmission. In the space of QQE, that has used up and destroyed what was left of Japan’s [...]

A View To The Downside

By |2015-04-14T17:05:07-04:00April 14th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With retail sales and some other recent indicators flashing deeper warnings about the current economic climate, the concerns I raised last week and before about the “bunker mentality” have increased in relevance as well as probability. Specifically, if recession on the consumer side is rightfully characterized by households taking on a “bunker mentality” then it is appropriate to suggest what [...]

Consumers Further in the Bunker

By |2015-04-08T10:48:02-04:00April 8th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Consumer credit is somewhat useful as a gauge for actual consumer behavior in actual activity, as opposed to consumer sentiment surveys which tend to follow stock prices (and be dominated by the upper incomes) and the theory on the “wealth effect.” In terms of the current “cycle”, or supercycle as it may be, sentiment and debt could not be further [...]

Disinflation Is Not Cash

By |2015-03-30T16:23:14-04:00March 30th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Personal spending had fallen, seasonally-adjusted, for two consecutive months placing warning upon the household sector. The just-released estimates for January show only the smallest of rebounds, just +0.1%, in February suggesting that nothing yet has been resolved in either direction. Unlike last year, there is no surge that would indicate a temporary straying from the otherwise only tepid path. This [...]

But The Payroll Report…

By |2015-03-27T15:36:44-04:00March 27th, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t supposed to be the case that China would steal all the attention from Japan. We are only a few days away from QQE’s second anniversary and all expectations were purposely set to be a full-blown revival by now. The dedication and skill with which the Japanese economy was handled was meant to conclusively demonstrate with no debate that [...]

What Home Sellers Know That Economists Don’t

By |2015-03-23T17:08:27-04:00March 23rd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There really isn’t much to say about the housing market in the US right now except that economists clearly don’t know what to do with it. Having signed up wholeheartedly for the “booming” economy, or at least the narrative thereof, flagging sales in both new homes and resales doesn’t compute. Instead of recognizing why that may be, especially as it [...]

A Eurodollar Impression On the Corporate Side of the Bubble Economy

By |2015-03-23T16:23:55-04:00March 23rd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Right along with the growing recognition that there is a systemic problem with labor utilization, and thus wages and earned income serious lag and cap true economic advance, there is at least the coincidence of financial factors that would offer a correlation if not full causation. It may be just that, coincidence, but even that should more than suggest a [...]

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