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An Entirely Too Familiar American (anti)Inflationary Anecdote

By |2021-06-09T17:27:19-04:00June 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One of the more compelling aspects of the last LABOR SHORTAGE!!!!, in an outright contradictory way, was how it was made up of entirely anecdotes. Lacking data, especially wage data, the narrative was instead kept up and alive by the media hyping every small creative innovation companies were using if only to avoid having to actually pay their workers and [...]

Roaring GDP, So What’s That In The I

By |2020-10-29T20:15:43-04:00October 29th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

US GDP both nominal and real came roaring back in Q3. Posting its largest single quarter gain ever, and it’s not even close, the domestic economy appears to have surmounted the COVID obstacles as well as others imposed by Q1’s GFC2. These estimates are the most gigantic yet. By the numbers, real GDP was $18.6 trillion (SAAR) during Q3, up [...]

I Never Said The Fed Wasn’t Good

By |2020-01-29T16:44:30-05:00January 29th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There he was, the Fed Chairman stumbling through a question about headwinds and transitory factors. No, not Jay Powell in January 2020, this was Ben Bernanke in June 2011. The Fed had just downgraded its recovery forecasts (again) and some in the media weren’t getting it. After all, QE2. It was this enormously powerful monetary agent introduced for a second [...]

Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

By |2020-01-11T14:08:31-05:00January 11th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the [...]

Disposable (Employment) Figures

By |2019-12-06T17:36:44-05:00December 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If last month’s payroll report was declared to be strong at +128k, then what would that make this month’s +266k? Epic? Heroic? The superlatives are flying around today, as you should expect. This Payroll Friday actually fits the times. It wasn’t great, they never really are nowadays (when you adjust for population and participation), but it was a good one [...]

Japan: Fall Like Germany, Or Give Hope To The Rest of the World?

By |2019-08-26T16:42:01-04:00August 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After trading overnight in Asia, Japan’s government bond market is within a hair’s breadth of setting new record lows. The 10-year JGB is within a basis point and a fraction of one while the 5-year JGB has only 2 bps to reach. It otherwise seems at odds with the mainstream narrative at least where Japan’s economy is concerned. Record lows [...]

Post-Landmine Payrolls

By |2019-07-05T12:32:29-04:00July 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never about a single payroll report. Even still, there’s something significant in how the “good” ones aren’t measuring up the way they used to. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy gained 224k payrolls in the month of June 2019. Well above consensus, the headline is being described as relieving some of the growing economic [...]

Payrolls Like GDP: Headlines Good, Underneath Really, Really Not

By |2019-05-03T12:24:30-04:00May 3rd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If the unemployment rate reaches zero and wages still don’t explode higher, the economy falls off, will Economists, central bankers, and the media stop relying on this one statistic for overall economic interpretation? You can be reasonably excited when the unemployment rate falls below 5%, as it did four years ago. Three point six, however, that’s something else entirely. We’ve [...]

Auto Sales The Lowest In Half A Decade, Just Coincidence FCA Will Join Ford, GM Ditching Monthly Sales Estimates

By |2019-05-02T17:37:15-04:00May 2nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

FCA, formerly Fiat-Chrysler, is the latest automaker to switch from a monthly sales report. Joining GM and Ford, beginning in October all three of Detroit’s big car companies will be publishing quarterly sales figures. The announcement comes at an auspicious moment. As with the other two, FCA claims the change is being done in the name of transparency. Less reporting [...]

Third Time’s The Charm, Or Is It Strike 3?

By |2019-05-01T16:49:41-04:00May 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They will have to be forced into it. There is no voluntary rate cut and there never has been. This idea, however, is what’s being offered today in the wake of another stubborn line in the sand. Central bankers are always, always the last to figure things out. Jay Powell was still talking about inflation and more aggressive monetary policy [...]

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