A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett, October 16, 2008, Buy American. I Am. , New York Times That was a month after the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers, in the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. At the beginning of the article he admits that [...]
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. -Warren Buffett Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own. -Nathan Rothschild Rothschild is said to have made a fortune buying assets in the wake of the Battle of Waterloo so in his case, he meant this literally. Another quote attributed [...]
What's your outlook for this year? I've heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you're reading this hoping I'll let you have a peek at my crystal ball, you're going to be disappointed. Because I don't have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don't know [...]
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffett People are always asking me where's the outlook good, but that's the wrong question. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable? Sir John Templeton, The Principle of Maximum Pessimism I don't know if we're at the point of maximum pessimism yet but [...]
TANSTAAFL is an acronym for "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch". It has been around a long time - Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 - but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein's 1966 book, "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". In economics, it most often refers to tradeoffs or opportunity costs; resources are [...]
One of the most deceptive stumbling blocks to figuring this whole thing out has been the rigidly binary approach to whatever any central bank does. The public is given one of only two choices: either monetary policies have been Goldilocks, just right; or, the message from critics, it is always ever in danger of being too good. That’s it; those [...]
He certainly is at least when compared to the usual beauty contest contenders like Bill Gross or Jeff Gundlach who typically flock to these occasions. Here we are in reflation again, so interest rates must have nowhere to go but up. Therefore, it follows, bonds are in for a world of hurt all because inflation is being let loose by [...]
We have the luxury, the honor, of speaking to a lot of individual investors here at Alhambra. Whether they are clients or future clients (optimism is my default condition), the most common view of stocks is that they are overvalued and a fall – a large fall – is inevitable. And there is no stock that embodies that view more [...]
It’s a behavioral shift, one we’ve seen before. Misunderstood because of idiocy like QE, even those who’ve undergone the change fail to appreciate the deeper meaning behind it. Not just at the firm-level, more so systemically. GFC1 had left everyone, even the best of businesses, essentially stranded fighting for their lives. Lost revenue was secondary to daily survival.Liquidity.Among the grandest [...]
The economic reports of the last two weeks were generally of a more positive tone. The majority of reports were better than expected although it must be noted that many of those reports were of the sentiment variety, reflecting optimism about the future that may or may not prove warranted. Markets have certainly responded to the dreams of tax reform [...]
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