To be an interested observer of things in the summer of 2013 was to be awash in the awareness of so many contradictions packed into one little piece of history. Forward guidance, for one, recognized the effects of markets. If QE was really effective, interest rates would rise not fall in anticipation of those positive effects. This was, actually, the [...]
In September 2016, Wells Fargo fired 5,300 employees. These sorts of mass layoffs have become common in banking throughout the post-crisis era, especially those years of the “rising dollar.” This was different, however, as Wells was not cutting back in capacity but dealing with the aftermath of being far too aggressive. These employees were found to have opened secret and [...]
The OCC reports that total gross notional derivatives outstanding jumped by nearly 8% in Q1 2017 over Q4 2016. At $178 trillion, that is even more than the reported total for Q3 last year. The latest estimates largely confirm the idea that bank balance sheets were relatively more accommodative in 2017 than especially later 2016. Among the more buoyant categories [...]
It wasn’t all that long ago that bank stress tests were designed specifically to ensure 100% passing rates. The purpose of the exercise has nothing to do with bank safety or even oversight, it is a mode of pure psychology (bordering on propaganda). The first introduction back in 2009 was effectively that – to calm investor fears by stamping the [...]
Barclays results were somewhat unexpected, mostly because the size of the declines in revenues across investment banking (-37% Y/Y profits) were much weaker than first estimates. It was very much expected that fixed income “trading” would see broadly lower results, and that was confirmed, but the scale of the reactionary “cost management” efforts seems a bit disproportionate. The bank indicated [...]
After a wave of job cuts on the leading edge of the mortgage collapse, it seems that banks, after reporting huge volume declines, are cutting further. Bank of America announced a new round of cuts, adding 4,000 to the 9,000 that were let go in Q3. Wells Fargo just fired 925 workers in addition to the 5,300 downsized in Q3. [...]
In March, Wells Fargo CFO Timothy Sloan previewed the bank’s first quarter earnings. Noting that Wells had originated $524 billion worth of mortgages in 2012, he expected, as the industry did, volumes and profitability to come down a bit in 2013. He also added, “We love the mortgage business.” I don’t think he had the third quarter of 2013 in [...]
JP Morgan reported their widely anticipated earnings Friday and the losses from the London Whale trading fiasco were huge. The firm had initially pegged the losses at $1 to 2 billion but the quarterly report showed the total has bulged to $5.8 billion. And according to the CFO there may be additional losses of $700 million to $1.7 billion. Naturally [...]
With the US economy showing decent growth while the rest of the world is showing slow or no growth, currency traders are selling Euros and buying Dollars. As a result, the Euro is trading at intermediate term lows while the Dollar is hitting new highs. In recent months, equities and the dollar have gone from a nearly perfect inverse correlation to having practically [...]
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