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Just When You’ve Thought You’ve Seen It All

By |2017-12-04T17:18:07-05:00December 4th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

I could understand it if its track record was spotty, or partially mixed. But the level of denial runs deep and wide with the yield curve. There is a growing chorus of nonsense, really, which is attempting to spin the flattening as some kind of benign technical rotation that through illogical convolution equals the opposite of what is obvious. Let’s [...]

Eurodollar Futures, The Verdict (Eurodollar University)

By |2017-08-22T16:34:53-04:00August 22nd, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The American banking system had been primarily a domestic one throughout its early development. Despite, or because of, the rapid growth in the later 19th century, banking was orientated almost entirely inward to finance the needs of that growth. But as a growing national as well as industrial power, the US adopted several measures early in the 20th century to [...]

‘Dollar’ ‘Improvement’

By |2017-04-24T19:44:18-04:00April 24th, 2017|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to the headline TIC statistics, foreign central banks have in the past six months sold the fewest UST’s since the 6-month period ended November 2015. That may indicate an easing of “dollar” pressure in the private markets due to “reflation” sentiment. They are, however, still selling. In February 2017, the latest month available, the foreign official sector disposed of [...]

An Inside Basis For Unfortunate Continuity

By |2017-04-12T15:48:53-04:00April 12th, 2017|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Primary dealer holdings of UST securities have been on the rise again. This sort of warehouse activity is drastically misunderstood, exemplified best when last year around this time surging dealer inventory was blamed on those banks’ purported inability to sell off their holdings. It was an absolutely absurd idea for several reasons, but most prominently the overwhelming demand at the [...]

The Product of NIRP: Exposing Psuedo-Science

By |2016-08-24T16:07:11-04:00August 24th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t the introduction of statistics that led to the dire state of “science”, rather it was the jettison of common sense in favor of, and the total deference to, statistics. This was not a single event or a clean break, of course, as it happened slowly over decades. But in the 21st century what is often talked about and [...]

My Chart of the Week

By |2016-04-16T15:01:35-04:00April 16th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It is remarkable the disparity in views on display by various markets and what that suggests about what is driving each. In stocks and especially junk bonds, you get the sense of a massive sigh of relief that “it’s all over”, and while scary for a time it’s back to momentum and not missing out on the big money bargains. [...]

Still Yen, No China, Now Banks

By |2016-04-07T16:42:43-04:00April 7th, 2016|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

It’s never a good sign when bank stocks are leading any retreat, but that is especially the case given recent events when several high profile banks were at the epicenter of early 2016’s liquidation rerun. As usual, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse are the firms most mentioned and among those most disfavored at these times. The media struggles to find [...]

State of the Eurodollar System; The Outrageous and The Absurd

By |2016-04-04T18:45:13-04:00April 4th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The basis for the ongoing economic paradigm shift that seems to be manifesting in a slow, lingering slowdown (that is now more than year into contraction) in the US and global economies can be nothing but the withdrawal of banks from the necessities of the credit-based reserve currency. So far, the updated bank reports for Q4 last year continue the [...]

The ‘Mystery’ in TIC Is Likely Important Given These Big Numbers

By |2016-03-29T17:44:35-04:00March 29th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The “first” part of the TIC data update for January was relatively straightforward, especially since the scale of the net transaction adjustments in both December and January really did match what happened in January (crossing into February). The Treasury Department’s estimate for foreign holdings of US dollar assets were nothing short of remarkable in all the ways that were expected [...]

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