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wholesale inventory

Inventory Flood Continues Just As Consumers Tap Out

By |2022-05-27T19:53:48-04:00May 27th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If it continues to play out the same way, it would be all the worst scenarios lumped together all at the same time. A real unfortunate convergence, yet one that has been entirely predictable. Consumers reaching their absolute spending limits. Warehouse and storage capacity nationwide dwindling to long-time lows, leaving firms no options to store inbound goods. And, of course, [...]

Historic Inventory Continued In March, But Is It All Price Illusion, Too?

By |2022-04-27T19:41:56-04:00April 27th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau today released its advanced estimates for March trade. These include, among other accounts like imports and exports, preliminary results reported by retailers and wholesalers. That means, for our purposes, inventories. Oh my, was there ever more inventory. It was, apparently, widely expected that following an avalanche of goods building up over the previous five months the situation [...]

Concocting Inventory

By |2022-04-08T20:08:34-04:00April 8th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau provided some updated inventory estimates about wholesalers, including its annual benchmark revisions. As to the latter, not a whole lot was changed, a small downward revision right around the peak (early 2021) of the supply shock which is consistent with the GDP estimates for when inventory levels were shrinking fast. What’s worth noting about the figures now [...]

FOMC Goes With Unemployment Rate While This Huge Number Happens To Far More Relevant Economic Data

By |2022-01-26T17:58:07-05:00January 26th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first time I can consciously remember using the term landmine was probably here in February 2019. I had described the same process play out several times before, I had just never applied that term. There was all sorts of market chaos in the final two months of 2018, including a full-on stock market correction, believe it or not, leaving [...]

Sure, Tomorrow the CPI But Future CPI’s In Today’s Inventory?

By |2021-12-09T20:07:18-05:00December 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Empty shelves at the grocery store are an easy way to get likes and clicks. The highest CPI in decades, like there almost certainly will be at tomorrow’s release, relatedly a hot news topic. On the contrary, hardly anyone will publish therefore notice that wholesale inventories during October 2021 increased by the largest monthly amount on record.It just doesn’t fit [...]

An Economy Dividing By Inventory And Labor

By |2021-09-29T18:06:07-04:00September 29th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Is it delta COVID? Or the widely reported labor shortage? Something has created a soft patch in the presumed indestructible US economy still hopped up on Uncle Sam’s deposits made earlier in the year. And yet, there’s a nagging feeling over how this time, like all previous times, just might be too good to be true, too. To start with, [...]

That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”

By |2020-07-29T19:19:39-04:00July 29th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market. This isn’t [...]

More Points For, And Pointing To, The Midpoint

By |2019-10-28T19:09:09-04:00October 28th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not surprising that the Census Bureau would report another weird sideways trend in wholesale sales. After all, the agency has already produced that kind of pattern in the related data for durable goods. For reasons that aren’t going to be explained, economic activity across the supply chain from producers to consumers has been curtailed. That hasn’t mean outright shrinking [...]

Consumers Have To or Want To with Revolving Credit?

By |2019-09-11T17:00:04-04:00September 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that revolving consumer credit in the US rose by a seasonally adjusted $10 billion in the month of July 2019. That was the largest single monthly increase since November 2017. Given how the latter month was related to “residual seasonality”, meaning Americans spending perhaps more than they wanted for the Christmas holiday, and the middle [...]

Wholesale, Inventory, And The Raised Risk of Recession

By |2019-08-08T17:36:56-04:00August 8th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Any recession still retains its inventory roots. Back when manufacturing ruled the US economy, an unanticipated buildup would be all it took to trigger one. Goods would begin stacking up on the wholesale level once retailers found it harder to move what they already had. This in turn caused wholesalers to put the brakes on manufacturing which then triggered production [...]

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