fbpx

wholesale inventory

Standards For Interpretation And Analysis Matter A Great Deal

By |2016-10-07T17:36:08-04:00October 7th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After falling by nearly 7% year-over-year in July, the third worst drop since 2009, wholesale sales expanded by nearly 7% in August, the highest gain in almost two years. As with factory orders, however, there are seasonal effects to consider given these are unadjusted comparisons. Blended together, cumulatively wholesale sales for both July and August were down about 1%. Seasonally-adjusted, [...]

The Scale Of Wholesale Economic Loss

By |2016-09-09T16:52:58-04:00September 9th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The worst month for the wholesale level of the supply chain during the Great Recession was May 2009, just at the tail end of the heaviest part. The amount of sales as well as the calculated decline has moved around somewhat over the years as revisions have rewritten the amplitudes and the ultimate depth of that event, but May 2009 [...]

Wholesalers Cautious On Inventory For Good Reason

By |2016-08-09T15:58:42-04:00August 9th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales for June 2016 declined slightly, -0.6%, year-over-year. Since February, sales have flattened out in unadjusted terms. Seasonally-adjusted, wholesales sales rose nearly 2% from May 2016, and are up $17 billion from February. Of that increase, however, $11.5 billion was petroleum alone. Taking out the volatile swings in oil and oil prices, wholesale sales ex petroleum have been stagnant [...]

Nearly Two Years of Manufacturing Contraction, And No Progress In Inventory

By |2016-07-19T16:41:26-04:00July 19th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Manufacturing sales were reported Friday to have declined 2.3% year-over-year in May, following a 4.7% contraction in April. Since sales in May 2015 were almost 6% less than May 2014, the manufacturing sector counts almost 8% less in revenue across two years of contraction. The worst part is, again, the time. In seasonally-adjusted terms, estimated sales of $456 billion in [...]

Wholesale Zombie

By |2016-07-12T16:55:45-04:00July 12th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale inventories have ground to a halt, but since wholesale sales have also the inventory imbalance only continues midway already through its second year. Excluding petroleum, the wholesale inventory to sales ratio surged upward starting in November 2014. By the middle of last year, inventory growth had slowed but that only locked the current imbalance into seeming perpetuity. For the [...]

The Polar Vortex Economy of 2014 Was A Warning; Wholesale Sales Prove It Should Not Have Been Dismissed As Weather

By |2016-06-09T18:08:43-04:00June 9th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesales sales are right back on track again after two months of being affected by the calendar. After rising 0.8% in February and 0.6% in March, sales declined by 5.3% Y/Y in April. For the first four months of the year combined, wholesale sales were down nearly 3% compared to the first four months of last year. Since sales in [...]

Inventory Finally Catching Sales But Not Close To Balance

By |2016-05-10T15:51:50-04:00May 10th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales rose just 0.8% in March, following a similar rise in February. For the quarter, sales dropped almost 2% from Q1 2015. More importantly, inventory barely budged in either March or for the quarter. Rising just 0.2% in the latest month, that was the smallest yearly gain since June 2010. In Q1 overall, wholesale inventories were also practically unchanged [...]

Almost Two Years Already, Inventory Indicates Still More Manufacturing Recession To Come In Terms of Time And Depth

By |2016-04-13T18:32:03-04:00April 13th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Given the revisions to wholesale sales (downward) and inventories (upward), we knew that the overall inventory imbalance for the whole supply chain would be pushed up somewhat. Total Business Inventory to Sales was 1.41 in February, the second consecutive month at that extreme. And it really is an extreme since the last time we saw such imbalance was November 2008 [...]

Supply Chain Slowdown

By |2016-04-08T15:55:38-04:00April 8th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Not to continue beating a dead horse, but I have a stick and the carcass is right in front of me. The entire supply chain inside the US economy is full agreement both on where the economy is right now and, perhaps more importantly, how it came to be that way. Such harmony is not atypical, as synchronicity usually defines [...]

Large Wholesale Revisions Confirm A Lot About 2015/16

By |2016-04-08T13:29:34-04:00April 8th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In July last year, the BEA reconfigured its GDP benchmarks to incorporate the results of the comprehensive 2012 Economic Census. That broad and deep survey found much less “recovery” than the BEA had originally anticipated through its system of stochastic predictions. It is believed that these statistical agencies of the government actually measure results in the real economy but in [...]

Go to Top