201804.10
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China, Hurricanes, Inflation; The Inventory Projection

Wholesale sales, seasonally adjusted, bounced back moderately in February 2018 after a sharp decline (revised even lower) in January. Sales in the latest monthly figures are left still lower than in December and only slightly more than in November. This is the familiar aftermath of Harvey and Irma’s aftermath. Unadjusted, year-over-year wholesale sales increased by…

201803.12
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Hurricane Wholesale

Wholesale sales were up 10% year-over-year in January. But like every other economic account, the bulk of those gains were registered in the aftermath of Harvey and Irma. Seasonally-adjusted, wholesale sales predictably declined in January. Compared to other data points like imports, it’s literally the same pattern. Petroleum sales do account for a lot of…

201709.08
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Why So Much Inventory?

Liquidity and more so liquidity preferences are vastly misunderstood for a whole host of reasons. A lot of it has to do with the dominant strains of Economics battling each other (saltwater vs. freshwater) over which statistical model fails less frequently. In shifting to mathematics and statistics, something great has been lost. Economists don’t understand…

201707.11
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Wholesale: No Acceleration, No Liquidation

In the same way as durable goods orders and US imports, wholesale sales in May 2017 were up somewhat unadjusted but down for the third straight month according the seasonally-adjusted series. As with those other two, the difference is one of timing. In other words, combining the two sets, seasonal and not, we are left…

201705.09
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More And More An Inventory Story

Wholesale sales were up 8.3% in March 2017 unadjusted year-over-year. Like other accounts, however, the seasonally adjusted series was not impressed. On an adjusted basis, sales were flat month-over-month, just $50 million more in March than February. It isn’t clear what the problem might be, as the only calendar aberration is Easter that fell in…

201704.07
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Wholesale Sales and Inventory Revisions Don’t Change Much

Wholesale sales rose 5.3% in February 2017 year-over-year after jumping by more than 12% in January on oil effects. Like calculated inflation rates, wholesale sales are for now marginally determined by energy price comparisons as well as calendar effects. February 2017 had one fewer day than February 2016, which according to the Census Bureau’s seasonal…

201612.12
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Adjusting Wholesale Sales And Inventory

When the estimates for factor orders were released earlier this month, there was an unusual pattern for the revision of September’s preliminary figures. Subsequent data suggested that factory orders were slightly less than had been originally calculated, yet despite that result for the unadjusted data the seasonally-adjusted estimate for factory orders in September was instead…

201611.09
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Still No Growth In Wholesale Sales, Inventories May Start To Weigh

Wholesale sales were flat in September, and flat overall for the quarter. They had declined sharply in July, rebounded in August, only to go nowhere for all the trouble. It is perfectly reminiscent of this whole economy, which fell in 2015 and then despite all projections otherwise never got back up. The best that can…

201610.07
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Standards For Interpretation And Analysis Matter A Great Deal

After falling by nearly 7% year-over-year in July, the third worst drop since 2009, wholesale sales expanded by nearly 7% in August, the highest gain in almost two years. As with factory orders, however, there are seasonal effects to consider given these are unadjusted comparisons. Blended together, cumulatively wholesale sales for both July and August…

201609.09
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The Scale Of Wholesale Economic Loss

The worst month for the wholesale level of the supply chain during the Great Recession was May 2009, just at the tail end of the heaviest part. The amount of sales as well as the calculated decline has moved around somewhat over the years as revisions have rewritten the amplitudes and the ultimate depth of…