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wholesale sales

Concocting Inventory

By |2022-04-08T20:08:34-04:00April 8th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Census Bureau provided some updated inventory estimates about wholesalers, including its annual benchmark revisions. As to the latter, not a whole lot was changed, a small downward revision right around the peak (early 2021) of the supply shock which is consistent with the GDP estimates for when inventory levels were shrinking fast. What’s worth noting about the figures now [...]

Briefing Even More Inventory

By |2022-02-28T20:03:49-05:00February 28th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales stumbled in December, contributing some to the explosion in inventory across the US supply chain – but not all. Inventories were going to spike even if sales had been better. In fact, retail inventories rose at such a record pace beyond anything seen before, had sales been far improved the monthly increase in inventories still would’ve unlike anything [...]

Sure, Tomorrow the CPI But Future CPI’s In Today’s Inventory?

By |2021-12-09T20:07:18-05:00December 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Empty shelves at the grocery store are an easy way to get likes and clicks. The highest CPI in decades, like there almost certainly will be at tomorrow’s release, relatedly a hot news topic. On the contrary, hardly anyone will publish therefore notice that wholesale inventories during October 2021 increased by the largest monthly amount on record.It just doesn’t fit [...]

Revisiting The Last Overhang

By |2021-09-28T19:37:26-04:00September 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One reason why I still believe the US most likely would have entered a recession at some point in 2020 even without COVID wasn’t just the yield curve inversion that popped up several months before then. In August of 2019, the small part of the Treasury curve most people pay attention to (2s10s) did send out that dreaded signal, suggesting [...]

There’s No V In Wholesale

By |2020-04-28T15:39:28-04:00April 28th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

With survey after survey showing Americans are now firmly more concerned about the economy than the pandemic, the narrative reassurance program will be even more in demand than ever. The latest Axios-Ipsos poll suggests nine out of ten US citizens are today worried about economic disaster. To counter the growing angst, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin declared over the weekend that his [...]

More Points For, And Pointing To, The Midpoint

By |2019-10-28T19:09:09-04:00October 28th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not surprising that the Census Bureau would report another weird sideways trend in wholesale sales. After all, the agency has already produced that kind of pattern in the related data for durable goods. For reasons that aren’t going to be explained, economic activity across the supply chain from producers to consumers has been curtailed. That hasn’t mean outright shrinking [...]

Consumers Have To or Want To with Revolving Credit?

By |2019-09-11T17:00:04-04:00September 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that revolving consumer credit in the US rose by a seasonally adjusted $10 billion in the month of July 2019. That was the largest single monthly increase since November 2017. Given how the latter month was related to “residual seasonality”, meaning Americans spending perhaps more than they wanted for the Christmas holiday, and the middle [...]

Wholesale, Inventory, And The Raised Risk of Recession

By |2019-08-08T17:36:56-04:00August 8th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Any recession still retains its inventory roots. Back when manufacturing ruled the US economy, an unanticipated buildup would be all it took to trigger one. Goods would begin stacking up on the wholesale level once retailers found it harder to move what they already had. This in turn caused wholesalers to put the brakes on manufacturing which then triggered production [...]

Not Surprisingly, It Wasn’t Italy

By |2019-02-25T16:39:18-05:00February 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s so obscure now, I actually had to go back and reread what was going on there at the time. On May 29, the mainstream consensus was how Italian populists were screwing up Europe. Global bond markets were supposed to be selling off, massacred as global recovery took hold. Instead, worldwide the most liquid, safe instruments had been hugely bid [...]

China, Hurricanes, Inflation; The Inventory Projection

By |2018-04-10T17:35:30-04:00April 10th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Wholesale sales, seasonally adjusted, bounced back moderately in February 2018 after a sharp decline (revised even lower) in January. Sales in the latest monthly figures are left still lower than in December and only slightly more than in November. This is the familiar aftermath of Harvey and Irma’s aftermath. Unadjusted, year-over-year wholesale sales increased by just 6.9%. As the storm [...]

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