Sales of durable goods at wholesalers remains in decline versus a year ago. The drop is from professional equipment (computers and software) and minerals and metals. Non-durable has returned to growth. The growth is not broad but mostly about petroleum and to a lesser extent, drugs. Durable goods' inventories remain high while non-durable goods inventories have dipped just below the [...]
One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure. Instead, they seemed to further indicate only what we had proposed upon release of the October estimates: Christmas shopping came a bit early for [...]
Last week, the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) released its updated statistics for commercial bankruptcies through June 2016. For yet another month, bankruptcies jumped by 30% over the same month in 2015. Total commercial filings were 3,294 in June, compared to 2,442 in June 2015; Chapter 11 filings were up 36% year-over-year. The turn in apparent liquidity and business struggles occurred [...]
With the latest update on wholesale trade, the October supply chain is almost fully in view. Unfortunately, the last piece, retail inventories, is the data series I want most to see but that will have to wait. Throughout 2013, the year of marginal inventory domination, it has been retail inventories driving these marginal changes. If we start at the crudest [...]
The best ISM Manufacturing PMI since the middle of 2011 seems to indicate better economic conditions in the middle of 2013, particularly when compared to the first few months. However, the ISM has been in the up and down pattern since the middle of last year, notably rising to 54.2 in February 2013 before collapsing again. The February number caused [...]
While last Friday’s jobs report had a decent headline number (if little else), the wholesale report is nothing but trouble. Start with wholesale sales, down 1.2% from September on an adjusted basis, while inventories rose 0.5%. Automobile sales fell 3.1%, dragging durable goods sales 0.9% lower on the month. Even nondurable goods had a difficult month, largely due to petroleum [...]
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