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winter

Not Snow or Seasons, Just Slow

By |2016-04-12T17:25:35-04:00April 12th, 2016|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last year, economists were fed up with winter. They had had enough of Q1’s always lagging, threatening to upend the idea that there is a solid and improving recovery. To drop a negative GDP quarter into that mix was the final straw, since negative quarters are exceedingly rare – they actually don’t occur outside of recession. In the four decades [...]

Strike 2 On Chicago

By |2015-03-31T15:26:55-04:00March 31st, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The continued disappointment of economic data is starting to weigh, but only as concerns might be directed toward Q1. Despite all projections for a sharp rebound after January’s dreariness, February figures continue on the downside and now March indications are not much better. The latest is the ISM Chicago Business Barometer (formerly Chicago PMI) which remained in significant contraction for [...]

Winter That Never Ends; Or One That Never Really Began

By |2015-03-12T11:33:52-04:00March 12th, 2015|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

None of the following is unexpected given the “unexpected” nature of retail sales contradicting everything that was expected. Consumers are not acting like they “should” as the unemployment rate describes its version of the economy. From Bloomberg: Purchases unexpectedly dropped 0.6 percent, a third consecutive decline, Commerce Department figures showed Thursday in Washington. The median forecast of 86 economists surveyed [...]

Inventory Rules The Cycle

By |2014-04-30T16:40:27-04:00April 30th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a simple frame of reference, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2014 was $60 billion in nominal terms. The BEA calculates that nominally business inventories grew by $112 billion in the same period. On a back of the envelope basis, inventory growth was twice that of GDP and without it [...]

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