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Humpty Dumpty Dives the Depths Of the Second Labor Pool

By |2020-11-05T19:33:41-05:00November 5th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

An “unexpectedly” cool summer that will certainly turn up the heat as the global economy’s winter stubbornly refuses to thaw. We keep getting more and more indications that the economy’s rebound from the depths of April/May slowed way down in and around June/July. That lowered trajectory, while still upward, isn’t nearly enough and it appears to continue all the way [...]

More Uncovered, The Monster Belying Monster Jobs Numbers

By |2020-08-07T16:48:58-04:00August 7th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I’ve always disliked the ritual of Payroll Friday because that’s what it is. The BLS doesn’t even measure the change in payrolls, for crying out loud. The government attempts to define a very wide interval into which the real labor market may have fallen. Even then it’s nothing like precision, especially at a low 90% confidence interval.And don’t get me [...]

It’s Hard To See Anything But Enormous Long-term Cost

By |2020-04-03T16:50:43-04:00April 3rd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unemployment rate wins again. In a saner era, back when what was called economic growth was actually economic growth, this primary labor ratio did a commendable job accurately indicating the relative conditions in the labor market. You didn’t go looking for corroboration because it was all around; harmony in numbers for a far more peaceful and serene period.Ever since [...]

Housing: Going Wrong In The Few Things That Were Going Right

By |2019-07-18T17:23:50-04:00July 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It certainly doesn’t feel like a bubble. We’ve heard about home prices in many cities skyrocketing like there has been one, still there does seem to be something different. If it is a bubble, it sure isn’t the same as the last one, the big one fifteen years ago. Much is missing this time around. For one thing, prices are [...]

Retail Sales, The More Immediate Problem

By |2018-12-14T11:59:09-05:00December 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How quickly hope can sour. That is, if it is based on suspect assumptions and a misreading of the general situation. It would then be more like irrational pleading than derived from solid analysis. One year ago, thereabouts, President Trump delivered upon one campaign pledge. He pushed a tax reform bill through Congress aiming to offer benefits to both the [...]

Converging Labor Trends

By |2018-11-09T17:28:20-05:00November 9th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a forgettable moment. The Federal Reserve’s Chairman at the time, Janet Yellen, was asked about a key economic statistic and she just couldn’t come up with it. In September 2016, Yellen was on Capitol Hill to testify as she usually did about how things were surely getting better. Rep. Frank Guinta wanted to know what that might mean [...]

Living With Nothing; Or, ‘If You Don’t Like This One Nothing Is Going To Make You Happy’

By |2018-11-02T12:25:28-04:00November 2nd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On December 5, 2014, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that in the month of November 2014 nonfarm private payrolls had surged by +321k. Typically bureaucratic, the introduction to the report was unusually blunt. “Job gains were widespread.” The text didn’t come right out and say it so the media did it all for them. TD Ameritrade’s Chief Strategist [...]

Another ‘Highest In Ten Years’

By |2018-10-31T15:36:17-04:00October 31st, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Upon the precipice of the Great “Recession”, US workers were cushioned to some extent by what economists call sticky wages. Before the Great Depression, as well as during it, companies would attempt to deal with looming economic contraction by cutting pay rates before workers. Nowadays, the intent is reversed; businesses will try to keep core workers by keeping pay rates [...]

No Such Thing As An 80% Boom

By |2018-10-24T17:12:53-04:00October 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Many attribute the saying “a rising tide lifts all boats” to President John Kennedy. He may have been the man who brought it into the mainstream but as his former speechwriter Ted Sorenson long ago admitted it didn’t originate from his or the President’s imagination. Instead, according to Sorenson, it was a phrase borrowed from the New England Chamber of [...]

Worker Wages And Who Is Really Winning

By |2018-10-04T18:19:59-04:00October 4th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Amazon made a huge splash when it announced it was raising wages. On the surface, it appeared to confirm all those stories about a massive, nationwide labor shortage. In addition, it positioned Amazon in the “fight for fifteen”, a political topic which raises more questions than provides answers. It was the rare occasion where populists on both sides applauded the [...]

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