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A Real Example Of Price Imbalance

By |2021-08-10T19:52:59-04:00August 10th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not just the trade data from individual countries. Take the WTO’s estimates which are derived from exports and imports going into or out of nearly all of them. These figures show that for all that recovery glory being printed up out of Uncle Sam’s checkbook, the American West Coast might be the only place where we can find anything [...]

Getting Harder to Spell T-R-A-D-E Without An ‘L’

By |2020-08-21T17:25:45-04:00August 21st, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The good news: the World Trade Organization (WTO) has crunched the numbers for 2020’s horrific second quarter and where global trade is concerned it may not have been as bad as first feared. Make no mistake, it was bad but not crashing down as far as the most pessimistic of the dreamed-up scenarios. Given where things stand now with only [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 4: Oil, Oil, Oil

By |2020-04-20T16:18:24-04:00April 20th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

  The debate over the shape of the recovery, "V" or "L", which might emerge following the dislocation and global contraction. What clues can we find?   1. Domestic Data clues (The Two Easiest Dots Anyone Will Ever Have To Connect) "Deprive any animal of oxygen and watch how it doesn’t move very fast." How the labor force changed [...]

Out Of The Onion Wars, Why Are There Only Losers?

By |2019-12-18T19:05:42-05:00December 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whereas China is embroiled in pig wars, its neighbor India is waging one against onions. African swine fever has decimated the former’s stock of hogs, leading to rapidly rising food prices at maybe the worst possible time. On the Indian subcontinent, same result as far as prices only in this case late monsoons have swamped the onion harvest. The shortage [...]

I Can’t Get No Re-cession

By |2019-11-19T17:15:15-05:00November 19th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Germans managed to do it, to avoid meeting the dreaded technical definition of recession. While not a meaningful one, conventional wisdom assigns the classification to any economy which features two straight quarters of declining output typically measured by real GDP. Germany’s was slightly negative in Q2 with most expectations for a repeat in Q3. Instead, deStatis reported last week [...]

The Big Picture Doesn’t Include ‘Trade Wars’

By |2019-10-01T18:20:57-04:00October 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The WTO today downgraded its estimates for global trade growth. In April, the international organization had figured the total volume of world merchandise trade would expand by about 2.6% in all of 2019 once the year closed out on the anticipated second half rebound. Everyone took their lumps in H1 and the WTO like central bankers everywhere were thinking “transitory” [...]

The Real Reason Why Stop/Go Is Back To Stop Again

By |2019-03-05T18:31:57-05:00March 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

These things have typically started in global trade. This makes sense given what we are dealing with are intermittent problems in global money. Quite simply, you can’t trade if you can’t get any. Therefore, the more acute the dollar shortage the more disruptive to the global merchandise economy. The one exception to this pattern was the first. Euro$ #1 registered [...]

The Direction Is (Globally) Clear

By |2018-11-27T12:47:04-05:00November 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is definitely one period that they got wrong. Still, IHS Markit’s Composite PMI for the US economy has been one of the better forward-looking indicators around. Tying to real GDP, this blend of manufacturing and services sentiment has predicted the general economic trend in the United States pretty closely. The latter half of 2015 was the big exception. For [...]

The Effects Of Money On Trade

By |2016-09-27T12:04:05-04:00September 27th, 2016|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There can be little doubt now outside of orthodox economics that the global economy is actually slowing, not accelerating as has been predicted. Economists themselves, however, continue to claim that things are getting better when the data strongly suggests otherwise. The latest depressing figures are from a pair of (orthodox) supranational organizations. First, the World Trade Organization (WTO) drastically reduced [...]

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