It’s that time of year again and everyone it seems has a list of things that could/may happen in 2009. Some of them are interesting, some of them are just plain bizarre. Here’s a few I found interesting:
1. The Russian mafia and Russian oligarchs are found to be large investors with Madoff
I have said privately that I don’t expect Madoff to live to trial. I haven’t previously posted that because it seemed in bad taste, but since Kass brought it up….Remember, Ken Lay died before his civil case could go to trial and his wife kept all his dough. I expect something similar for Mrs. Madoff.
2. Housing stabilizes sooner than expected.
I think we are experiencing the bottom right now so I’ll agree with this one.
The rest of Kass’ predictions either aren’t interesting or were attempts at humor (or at least I think so).
From Saxo Bank:
1. Iranian Revolution
Basically, their idea is that if oil prices stay down the government will not be able to provide basic services and that will result in a revolution. Considering that they weren’t doing a very good job of it with oil over $100/barrel, that seems plausible.
3. S&P 500 to 500
Extrapolating the near past into the near future is a dangerous business.
6. Dollar to Outstrip the Euro
They predict the Euro drops to 0.95. I have doubts about that but if the ECB starts acting more like the US Fed, anything is possible.
9. Commodities Prices to Plunge
Um, I hate to break it to Saxo but that’s already happened. I suppose they could plunge further, but with grain stocks near all time lows and massive economic stimulus, it seems unlikely.
Saxo Bank shouldn’t be discounted too much though. Here are some of their predictions from last year:
- S&P 500 falls 25%
- Chinese stock market falls 40% by summer.
- Grain prices double
- Oil prices rise to $175
- UK growth turns negative
On the other hand they also predicted that Ron Paul would win the election. Can’t get’em all right.
If you really want to get depressed, go read Jim Kunstler’s Forecast for 2009. Kunstler is a peak oiler who thinks we should all go back to growing our own food. I think he needs to get a prozac scrip.
I will have my predictions out soon.