Economic Projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents

January 2009

Variable Central Tendency1
2009 2010 2011 Longer Run
Change in Real GDP -1.3 to -0.5 2.5 to 3.3 3.8 to 5.0 2.5 to 2.7
October projection -0.2 to 1.1 2.3 to 3.2 2.8 to 3.6 n.a.
Unemployment rate 8.5 to 8.8 8.0 to 8.3 6.7 to 7.5 4.8 to 5.0
October projection 7.1 to 7.6 6.5 to 7.3 5.5 to 6.6 n.a.
PCE inflation 0.3 to 1.0 1.0 to 1.5 0.9 to 1.7 1.7 to 2.0
October projection 1.3 to 2.0 1.4 to 1.8 1.4 to 1.7 n.a.
Core PCE inflation 0.9 to 1.1 0.8 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.5
October projection 1.5 to 2.0 1.3 to 1.8 1.3 to 1.7

Variable Range2
2009 2010 2011 Longer Run
Change in real GDP -2.5 to 0.2 1.5 to 4.5 2.3 to 5.5 2.4 to 3.0
October projection -1.0 to 1.8 1.5 to 4.5 2.0 to 5.0 n.a.
Unemployment rate 8.0 to 9.2 7.0 to 9.2 5.5 to 8.0 4.5 to 5.5
October projection 6.6 to 8.0 5.5 to 8.0 4.9 to 7.3 n.a.
PCE inflation -0.5 to 1.5 0.7 to 1.8 0.2 to 2.1 1.5 to 2.0
October projection 1.0 to 2.2 1.1 to 1.9 0.8 to 1.8 n.a.
Core PCE inflation 0.6 to 1.5 0.4 to 1.7 0.0 to 1.8
October projection 1.3 to 2.1 1.1 to 1.9 0.8 to 1.8

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product and of inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The October projections were made in conjunction with the FOMC meeting on October 28-29, 2008.

1. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.

2. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants’ projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year.

More Charts and Analysis from Federal Reserve website.

FOMC Minutes Statment