Top News Headlines

  1. Russia, Iran surge into Syria; Obama blusters
  2. Obama signs stop gap funding bill; vows to veto any more short term extensions over debt limit.
  3. Hurricane Joaquin tracks up US east coast; Trump vows to deport if makes landfall.
  4. Education Secretary Aren Duncan steps down having accomplished nothing.

Economic News

  1. Employment gains fading, unemployment rate steady, no wage gains.
  2. Personal income and spending rise, prices don’t.
  3. Manufacturing still struggling; Dallas Fed, Chicago PMI, ISM, Factory Orders all miss to the downside.
  4. Layoffs rise more than expected.
  5. Atlanta Fed 3rd Quarter GDPNow down to just 0.9%

Random Thought Of The Week

Janet Yellen and the FOMC are now likely on hold with interest rates after the dismal economic readings last week that culminated with the weak jobs report. Not only was the September report weak but July and August also got downgraded. But should they be? Yellen’s speech last week laying out the case for a rate hike – a speech that was noticed more for her dizzy spell than its content – made one thing very clear. She is a true believer in the Phillips curve view of the world in which it is more people getting jobs that causes inflation. If the fact that Yellen is basing policy decisions on a theory that has been proven again and again to be false doesn’t alarm you consider too that employment is widely known to be a lagging economic indicator. If that isn’t a recipe for a monetary mistake I don’t know what is.

Chart Of The Week

This week’s chart of the week comes from my buddy Lance Roberts over at StreetTalk Live. No commentary required on this one.

Margin-Debt-GDP-092815

Broad Market Top 10 – 3 Month Returns

BROAD MARKET ETFS

MOMENTUM ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL

SPDR Sector Returns – 3 Month Returns

spdr sectors

SPDR SECTOR ROTATION MODEL

Country Returns Top 10 – 3 Month Returns

COUNTRY RETURNS

Commodity Returns Top 10 – 3 Month Returns

commodity returns

Bond Returns Top 10 – 3 Month Returns

bond returns

Stock Valuation Update