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Labor Shortage America has been Canceled

By |2019-03-06T17:00:33-04:00March 6th, 2019|Markets|

The holiday season was shaping up to be a good one, perhaps a very good one. All the signs seemed to be pointing in that direction, especially if you were a worker. All throughout last year, beginning partway through 2017, there wasn’t a day that went by without some mainstream story “reporting” on America’s labor [...]

No Building Left To Build A Boom

By |2019-03-04T18:26:44-04:00March 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the last several years, the US recovery following its experience with the global 2015-16 downturn has been lacking in several key dimensions. Reflation #3 in the real economy has reflected the lack of momentum and altitude in the snapback across the eurodollar system. As such, of all the reflation episodes this last one was [...]

In A Booming Economy, You Buy And Build Houses

By |2018-11-23T14:31:26-04:00November 23rd, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We can add realtors to the list of those who are angry with Jay Powell. The housing market continued its perplexing slump in October, according to a broad section of data encompassing everything from construction to sales of existing homes. We have been told since Economics 101 that the central bank is, well, central, therefore [...]

In A Booming Economy, You Make And Sell Cars

By |2018-11-16T12:52:41-04:00November 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In September 2015, the US EPA issued a notice of violation to Volkswagen. The European carmaker had, apparently, engineered its turbocharged direct injection diesel engines to turn on the vehicle’s emissions control only during testing. Discrepancies had been discovered by California regulators the year before, many involving European makes and models. The Volkswagen emissions scandal [...]

In A Booming Economy, You Borrow And Build

By |2018-11-15T18:01:36-04:00November 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We often forget, the middle 2000’s was not uniquely a housing bubble. It commanded our attention because that’s what ended up affecting so many Americans personally; whether foreclosures or just the negative “wealth effect” of declining real estate values. This was also pretty easy to understand, an asset bubble though complicated in its full manifestations [...]

Europe More Than Europe: From ‘Boom’ To The Precipice of Recession

By |2018-10-30T12:09:57-04:00October 30th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Data dependent, they claim. They aren’t. Mario Draghi at his last press conference admitted, “incoming information, [is] somewhat weaker than expected.” There is so much riding on the word “somewhat.” Because of the weasel, the head of the ECB told the assembled media policy normalization was unimpeded. He did so with a straight face. Good. [...]

No Such Thing As An 80% Boom

By |2018-10-24T17:12:53-04:00October 24th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Many attribute the saying “a rising tide lifts all boats” to President John Kennedy. He may have been the man who brought it into the mainstream but as his former speechwriter Ted Sorenson long ago admitted it didn’t originate from his or the President’s imagination. Instead, according to Sorenson, it was a phrase borrowed from [...]

Just The One More Boom Month For IP

By |2018-10-16T18:20:29-04:00October 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The calendar last month hadn’t yet run out on US Industrial Production as it had for US Retail Sales. The hurricane interruption of 2017 for industry unlike consumer spending extended into last September. Therefore, the base comparison for 2018 is against that artificial low. As such, US IP rose by 5.1% year-over-year last month. That’s [...]

What May Be The Final Month of the Fake News Boom

By |2018-09-14T11:30:23-04:00September 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the second consecutive month, retail sales recorded by gasoline stations surged by an annual rate of more than 20%. It was the fourth month in a row where sales have been up by nearly that amount. Last year’s jump in oil prices is feeding through in a number of ways. From headline inflation rates [...]

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