jsnider

About Jeffrey P. Snider

Jeff is the Head of Global Research at Alhambra. Though his work makes it sound like he is an economist, he is no such thing. Rather, through intense personal study he has developed a very different sense of especially the hidden inner workings of the global monetary system - beginning with the fact that it is a global money system. With a very unique starting point, Alhambra's research truly begins in a way that no one else's does.

The Unemployment Rate Has Been Left Even Lonelier

By |2019-06-10T17:59:23-04:00June 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The unemployment rate has been maybe the loneliest of numbers. That didn’t quite mean it was entirely alone. Of the major economic accounts, only the JOLTS series and only one part of that series suggested the big mainstream employment indicator was anywhere close to accurate. Job Openings (JO) have been surging as if companies are [...]

Just When You Thought It Couldn’t Get Any More Ridiculous

By |2019-06-07T17:47:09-04:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps it is very fitting timing. Not quite in the manner of serendipity, more like events matching stupidity. In the annals of the absurd, central bank programs fill out most of the catalog. It is getting harder and harder to describe the level of ridiculousness, the rationalizing already bordering on the sheer lunatic. And it [...]

The (Fake) Recovery Behind Record Low Bund Yields

By |2019-06-07T18:03:38-04:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

No Federal Reserve Chairman under its current configuration can say QE didn’t work. Those words will never pass the lips of whoever it may be occupying that position. The world’s bond markets, however, are trying very hard to make this resistance as uncomfortable as possible. The one thing central bankers here along with everywhere else [...]

Payrolls: Rate Cuts Not Of Their Choice

By |2019-06-07T12:16:52-04:00June 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never just one payroll report. The month-to-month changes in the Establishment Survey barely qualify as statistically significant, let alone meaningful. What that means is one good monthly headline is nothing to get excited about, just as one bad month shouldn’t get anyone too worked up. May 2019’s jobs report, however, isn’t in isolation. The [...]

All Of US Trade, Both Ways, And Much, Much More Than The Past Few Months

By |2019-06-06T19:03:08-04:00June 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The media quickly picked up on Jay Powell’s comments this week from Chicago. Much less talked about was why he was in that particular city. The Federal Reserve has been conducting what it claims is an exhaustive review of its monetary policies. Officials have been very quick to say they aren’t unhappy with them, no, [...]

Bills, Beige, And the Consequences of the Disappeared Labor Shortage

By |2019-06-06T12:58:22-04:00June 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Early last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to just 3.6%. It was the lowest in half a century, seemingly an amazing feat for the most puzzling boom ever conceived. Everyone says it is going gangbusters, but is everyone saying so simply because [...]

Copper And Oil Walked Out On The Last Puppet Show

By |2019-06-05T16:07:26-04:00June 5th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where have you gone, green shoots? The Fed turned dovish, a bunch of transitory factors, and, above all, so much Chinese stimulus. That’s what got everyone through the winter. Markets were truly harsh to end 2018, a sharp slap in the face after all year the unemployment rate. One of the big ones that seemed [...]

Bad Steepening Bills and Europe’s Possible Self-Reinforcing Recession Processes

By |2019-06-04T17:51:35-04:00June 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Normally, it’s a very good sign when the yield curve steepens. If longer-term rates are rising faster than those on the shorter end of the curve, it would say the bond market is forecasting a better probability of normal. Given where interest rates have been the last decade plus, this kind of steepening is what [...]