Alhambra Research

Monthly Macro Monitor: The Tempest

By |2019-05-13T16:41:14-04:00May 13th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The Trump administration raised tariffs last week from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and are considering tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese retaliated this morning, raising tariffs to 25% from 5% and 10% on various goods totaling $60 billion. Obviously, the trade negotiations are not going well. Stock markets around the [...]

Monthly Macro Chart Review: April 2019

By |2019-04-07T21:36:49-04:00April 7th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The economic data reported over the last month managed to confirm both that the economy is slowing and that there seems little reason to fear recession at this point. The slowdown is mostly a manufacturing affair - and some of that is actually a fracking slowdown - but consumption has also slowed. On a more positive note, housing seems to [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Well Worried

By |2019-03-26T16:09:13-04:00March 26th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

Don't waste your time worrying about things that are well worried. Well worried. One of the best turns of phrase I've ever heard in this business that has more than its fair share of adages and idioms. It is also one of the first - and best - lessons I learned from my original mentor in this business. The things [...]

Monthly Macro Chart Review – March

By |2019-03-07T17:19:11-04:00March 7th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Economy, Monthly Macro Monitor|

We're changing the format on our Macro updates, breaking the report into two parts. This is part one, a review of the data released the previous month with charts to highlight the ones we deem important. We'll post another one next week that will be more commentary and the market based indicators we use to monitor recession risk. We are [...]