Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

The Potential For Yield Plunge As Dovish Theater

By |2019-05-17T16:43:14-04:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Two on the same day, likely not coincidence. The next stage of “dovishness” may be upon us. It won’t be rate cuts; those won’t happen until all other excuses have been exhausted first. Jay Powell’s confused gang won’t give in until kicking and screaming there’s really nothing else left. The Fed “pause” isn’t working. To [...]

As Europe Keeps Falling, The Implications For Europe And Everyone Else

By |2019-05-17T12:17:22-04:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In late March, as global pessimism was renewed in the world’s bond markets, ECB President Mario Draghi appeared as he always does to urge optimism. Yes, Europe’s economy in particular didn’t finish 2018 as he had been expecting. But a soft patch, Draghi said, wouldn’t necessarily “foreshadow [a] serious slump.” The question on the minds [...]

We’re Gonna Need More Doves

By |2019-05-16T18:40:41-04:00May 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Maybe central bankers are just tired of being alone. In December 2008, for example, the FOMC members were practically celebrating how the NBER finally called recession an entire year after its start. Misery does love company, especially when you botch things that badly. On Tuesday, KC Fed President Esther George admitted she and her fellow [...]

From TIC’s Big March Number Right To Powell’s Future Rate Cut(s)

By |2019-05-16T17:38:39-04:00May 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise. After all, during the first quarter of this year several key banks announced they had had enough. Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Credit Suisse, as well as others, they all broadcast cuts to key operations. The FICC stuff, or bond trading to put it euphemistically. The very place the world [...]

Global Doves Expire: A Hundred Years of US IP Give Bond Market Another Win

By |2019-05-15T16:37:05-04:00May 15th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has been maintaining statistics on American industry for nearly as long as there has been a Federal Reserve. The first entry in the data series on Industrial Production is for the month of January ’19. Not 2019 but 1919. With over a hundred years of relatively consistent data, matching up very well [...]

Global Doves Expire: China’s Big 3 Stats Put To Rest RRR Myths

By |2019-05-15T12:55:50-04:00May 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Fed has its pause. The ECB is going to conduct another T-LTRO. But of all the central bank responses to the “unexpected” global weakness of late 2018, the Chinese’s was supposed to be the leader. The most forceful pushback against a worldwide downturn was reported to have been the PBOC’s “powerful” RRR cuts. China’s [...]

Global Doves Expire: Fed Pause Fizzles (US Retail Sales)

By |2019-05-15T11:29:03-04:00May 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Before the stock market’s slide beginning in early October, for most people they heard the economy was booming, the labor market was unbelievably good, an inflationary breakout just over the horizon. Jay Powell did as much as anyone to foster this belief, chief caretaker to the narrative. He and his fellow central bankers couldn’t use [...]