Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Official Hedging Begins (Again)

By |2018-11-16T16:27:40+00:00November 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The term “overseas turmoil” didn’t ever make into the official language, it was only through careful innuendo that things like FOMC meeting minutes would ever refer to the idea. It was a different story in the media, where the phrase gained its own currency. Ironically, it was the US currency behind it, which nobody could [...]

In A Booming Economy, You Make And Sell Cars

By |2018-11-16T12:52:41+00:00November 16th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In September 2015, the US EPA issued a notice of violation to Volkswagen. The European carmaker had, apparently, engineered its turbocharged direct injection diesel engines to turn on the vehicle’s emissions control only during testing. Discrepancies had been discovered by California regulators the year before, many involving European makes and models. The Volkswagen emissions scandal [...]

Retail Sales Marked By Revisions

By |2018-11-15T19:10:36+00:00November 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales rebounded 0.8% in October 2018 from September 2018, but it’s the downward revisions to the prior months that are cause for attention. The estimates for particularly September were moved sharply lower. Total retail sales two months ago had been figured last month at $485.8 billion (unadjusted) originally, but are now believed to have [...]

In A Booming Economy, You Borrow And Build

By |2018-11-15T18:01:36+00:00November 15th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We often forget, the middle 2000’s was not uniquely a housing bubble. It commanded our attention because that’s what ended up affecting so many Americans personally; whether foreclosures or just the negative “wealth effect” of declining real estate values. This was also pretty easy to understand, an asset bubble though complicated in its full manifestations [...]

China Softly Weakens Some More

By |2018-11-14T15:37:47+00:00November 14th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was nothing really shocking about China’s monthly economic statistics for October 2018. The Big 3, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, and Fixed Asset Investment, all continue along in the same way. The Chinese economy is not crashing, it may be slowing, but most of all there isn’t any more upside. It’s the last one that [...]

China’s Pooh Lesson

By |2018-11-13T17:49:28+00:00November 13th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s one of those “nothing to see here” moments for Economists trying not to appreciate what's really going on in China therefore the global economy. The slump in China’s automotive sector dragged on through October, with year-over-year sales down for the fourth straight month. Auto sales last month were off 12% from a year earlier [...]

Approaching the Point of No Return? UPDATED

By |2018-11-13T15:18:52+00:00November 13th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At the end of June, the crude curve really got out of hand. WTI futures had returned to backwardation many months before, and then the eurodollar/collateral explosion May 29 sapped some crude strength. Over the following month, curve backwardation would become extreme as the benchmark price seemed ready to skyrocket. After getting up near $80 [...]

The Long Shadows

By |2018-11-12T16:08:24+00:00November 12th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The news was one of those instances when you could see they were trying a little too hard. It didn’t make any sense, not anyway in the context to which it was delivered. On September 21, unnamed German officials were supposedly championing a megamerger in the banking sector. The country’s two largest financial institutions might [...]