Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

COT Blue: The Velocity of Capitulation

By |2019-02-11T16:13:32+00:00February 11th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Friday, the CFTC posted its COT data for the first week in 2019. For crude oil, capitulation. For US Treasury bond futures, capitulation. In the latter financial market, unsurprisingly the net market position utterly collapsed during December. From a relatively high (meaning market overall short) +58k contracts that last week in November when everyone [...]

LIBOR Was Expected To Drop. It Dropped. What Might This Mean?

By |2019-02-07T17:27:16+00:00February 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Everyone hates LIBOR, until it does something interesting. It used to be the most boring interest rate in the world. When it was that, it was also the most important. Though it followed along federal funds this was only because of the arb between onshore (NYC) and offshore (mainly London, sometimes Caymans) conducted by banks [...]

COT Black Is Partially Back With A Lot of Towels

By |2019-02-06T16:33:23+00:00February 6th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is in a bit of a tough spot. Being subject to the federal government shutdown meant shutting down the various Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for all the products listed on the exchange. There are a lot of them. Though the government and therefore the CFTC has reopened, it [...]

Global Recession Risks Right Now

By |2019-02-06T11:43:33+00:00February 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Germany is a tough one to get around. Argentina falls into a bad recession, you can get by believing that’s not particularly unusual or interesting. If its neighbor Brazil becomes shaky, you can still chalk it up to EM volatility. Italy is Europe’s perpetual basket case. China’s a little more difficult, but still that country [...]

More Of What Was Behind December, And Not Just December

By |2019-02-06T11:06:54+00:00February 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As more and more data rolls in even in this delayed fashion, the more what happened to end last year makes sense. The Census Bureau updated today its statistics for US trade in November 2018. Heading into the crucial month of December, these new figures suggest a big setback in the global economy that is [...]

Chinese Robots, New York Heartburn, and Goldman Sach’s Central Role

By |2019-02-05T18:54:16+00:00February 5th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the continued absence of regular data, as the US federal government attempts to get back up to speed before the next lull, it is perhaps appropriate to continue on with this week’s parade of anecdotes. Here I’ll discuss three of them, each seemingly unrelated to the others. To begin, we start with Chinese robots. [...]

What Bond Bull Really Means

By |2019-02-04T17:24:39+00:00February 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As the saying goes, the plural of anecdotes is not data. It might also be said that the plethora of anecdotes does not make for accurate news. Before around mid-December 2018, media outlets particularly those like Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal anxious to vindicate the technocrats at the Federal Reserve couldn’t print enough stories [...]

Recent Posts

Contact Info

Phone: 305-233-2772

Fax: 305-397-1686