Economy

As Chinese Factory Deflation Sets In, A ‘Dovish’ Powell Leans on ‘Uncertainty’

By |2019-07-10T12:54:31-04:00July 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a clever bit of misdirection. In one of the last interviews he gave before passing away, Milton Friedman talked about the true strength of central banks. It wasn’t money and monetary policy, instead he admitted that what they’re really good at is PR. Maybe that’s why you really can’t tell the difference Greenspan to [...]

A Trickle of Belgian Colored Deutsche Bank Speculation

By |2019-07-09T19:28:22-04:00July 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2011, the bank’s Chairman bristled at the characterization. His was not going to be a “bad bank” as many in the financial media had been saying. Pierre Mariani, chief executive of Belgium’s Dexia, preferred instead to call it the “residual bank.” No matter the label, the firm was being bailed out for the [...]

Embroiled by Fed Funds, FRBNY 143 Months After BNP Finally Says ‘Offshore’

By |2019-07-09T16:33:17-04:00July 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a poignant moment that has gone totally unappreciated. Lost in the noise about subprime mortgages, on August 9, 2007, what actually happened that day represented perhaps the best example of how things worked. Or suddenly didn’t. On the occasion of the 10th anniversary, I recounted the tale of BNP Paribas. You’ve heard of [...]

I’d Like To Solve The Puzzle: Nastier Number Four, The New Lows in Germany

By |2019-07-05T16:18:14-04:00July 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The European slump had been a combination of several transitory factors. At least that’s what they had kept saying. ECB officials and staff Economists didn’t use that specific word, so far that’s the exclusive domain of the Federal Reserve. Regardless of semantics, the message was clear: the 2018 economy ended on a sour note but [...]

Post-Landmine Payrolls

By |2019-07-05T12:32:29-04:00July 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never about a single payroll report. Even still, there’s something significant in how the “good” ones aren’t measuring up the way they used to. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the US economy gained 224k payrolls in the month of June 2019. Well above consensus, the headline is being described as relieving [...]

Contracting Factories, Curiously Rebounding Inbound Cars, And the Confirmed End of Decoupling

By |2019-07-03T11:52:14-04:00July 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US manufacturing sector may not be in as bad a shape as its German or Japanese counterparts, though it appears to be catching up on the downside. The Census Bureau reports today that new orders for all types of goods in all industries fell 1.6% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. This was the first [...]