Economy

Epic Flip Flop; From Surefire Inflation to ‘Muted’ in Three Weeks

By |2019-01-09T16:10:46+00:00January 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

And like that, it’s all different. For more than a year, two years, really, we’ve heard constantly about wage pressures. The US economy buoyed by several domestic factors as well as globally synchronized growth was in danger of getting too far out of hand. The unemployment rate said it was time – three years ago [...]

The Minus Signs Return…

By |2019-01-08T12:13:55+00:00January 7th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ambiguity favors the path of least resistance. If there isn’t any direct refutation of the thing everyone believes in, everyone will continue to believe in that thing and only that thing. Human nature. In economy terms, people respond near exclusively to negative numbers. This is less evolution and more a process of modern times. There [...]

Living In The Present

By |2019-01-10T17:15:44+00:00January 5th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Politics, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, nor to worry about the future, but to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly. Buddha Review It's that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read [...]

If You’ve Lost The ISM…

By |2019-01-04T16:58:03+00:00January 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

These transition periods are often just this sort of whirlwind. One day the economy looks awful, the next impervious to any downside. Today, it has been the latter with the BLS providing the warm comfort of headline payrolls. For now, it won’t matter how hollow. Yesterday, completely different story. Apple got it started downhill and [...]

Trend-Cycle or Payrolls?

By |2019-01-04T12:11:26+00:00January 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Friday, February, 2, 2001, the BLS reported stellar headline numbers for its Employment Situation release. Preliminary estimates for the Establishment Survey suggested US payrolls had gained +268k in the month of January. To put it in perspective, that would equate to +324k in today’s population, or a bit better than the latest figure. The [...]

The Politics of Spreading Inversion(s)

By |2019-01-03T18:14:44+00:00January 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Clothed in immense self-denial, hung up on absurd self-confidence, Federal Reserve officials gathered on August 7, 2007, to discuss how things really weren’t as bad as everyone seemed to think. There were several key conversations taking place at the FOMC meeting held then all leading nowhere. Policymakers would literally laugh off obvious distress in crucial [...]