Economy

CNY, Its Doom Sisters, And Chinese Threats

By |2019-05-13T16:31:59-04:00May 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a tell-tale sign of someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about. In the realm of global currency systems, anyone who brings up China’s massive stockpile of US Treasury assets inevitably they assign all the power to the Chinese. Xi could destroy Trump if he wanted, bringing down the US in a righteous [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: The Tempest

By |2019-05-13T16:41:14-04:00May 13th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The Trump administration raised tariffs last week from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and are considering tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese retaliated this morning, raising tariffs to 25% from 5% and 10% on various goods totaling $60 billion. Obviously, the trade negotiations are not going [...]

The Mark of the Eurodollar: Five Years of China Car Sales

By |2019-05-13T12:53:11-04:00May 13th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The biggest problem, among many, with 2017’s globally synchronized growth narrative was that it was always missing China. This was an enormous contradiction because the Chinese were supposed to be at the center of the rebirth. So much of what was being counted on from this “global growth” was figured to come out of the [...]

Curves Have Pointed The Way, And It’s The Way They Still Point

By |2019-05-10T16:52:02-04:00May 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the middle of last November, when the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve convened a conference on “global perspectives”, ironically, its officials were in a very good mood. The institution’s Chairman, Jay Powell, invited to speak at the gathering spelled out exactly why. Central bankers since Greenspan have made a habit of trying to [...]

JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns Again On UST’s Even Though JPM Appears To Have Been Huge Buyers of UST’s

By |2019-05-09T18:09:37-04:00May 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon climbed back up on the bond bear. It was one year ago, May 7, 2018, when he went on BloombergTV and caused a substantial market stir when he said 4%. No one would want to buy UST’s what with inflation raging and the Federal Reserve forced into an overly aggressive [...]

Chinese Treasuries and FOMC Policies, The Big Number That Just Turned Against Jay Powell

By |2019-05-08T16:46:40-04:00May 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a period when weird and unusual are commonplace, it was one of the more noteworthy and interesting outliers. Late in August 2010, a media report attributed to Hong Kong’s Ming Pao news agency suggested Zhou Xiaochuan was on the run. Supposedly, the Governor for the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, was [...]

China’s Export Story Is Everyone’s Economic Base Case

By |2019-05-08T11:53:08-04:00May 8th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first time the global economy was all set to boom, officials were at least more cautious. Chastened by years of setbacks and false dawns, in early 2014 they were encouraged nonetheless. The US was on the precipice of a boom (the first time), it was said, and though Europe was struggling it was positive [...]

What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories

By |2019-05-07T11:59:32-04:00May 7th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who [...]