Markets

Revisiting Hong Kong (For Reasons We Wish We Wouldn’t Have To)

By |2019-01-17T17:48:21+00:00January 17th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is perhaps the perfect day to review what’s going on in Hong Kong (thanks J. Fraser). I’ll be in Vancouver over the weekend to talk about curves, so why not preface it with a little HKD update. With everyone focused elsewhere, the story of 2017, in my view, wasn’t so big in 2018. For [...]

Hall of Mirrors, Where’d The Labor Shortage Go?

By |2019-01-16T17:37:08+00:00January 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Today was supposed to see the release of the Census Bureau’s retail trade report, a key data set pertaining to the (alarming) state of American consumers, therefore workers by extension (income). With the federal government in partial shutdown, those numbers will be delayed until further notice. In their place we will have to manage with [...]

The Bookkeeper’s Pen, But Which Bookkeeper?

By |2019-01-11T18:38:02+00:00January 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the chaotic days of the early “recovery”, those opposed to the Federal Reserve’s response largely fell into the wrong camp. The central bank had done too much, they claimed. Never mind how the first global panic in four generations had developed and then crushed the global economy, such deflation was over to be taken [...]

Insight Japan

By |2019-01-11T16:41:13+00:00January 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As I wrote yesterday, “In the West, consumer prices overall are pushed around by oil. In the East, by food.” In neither case is inflation buoyed by “money printing.” Central banks both West and East are doing things, of course, but none of them amount to increasing the effective supply of money. Failure of inflation, [...]

Shutting Down Inflation

By |2019-01-11T12:16:39+00:00January 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US federal government is shut down and certain economic data accounts are being left to go without scheduled updates, things like US trade provided by the Census Bureau. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ more watched series aren’t among the forgotten, however. The monthly payroll report would be compiled and released even during a nuclear [...]

Rate of Change

By |2019-01-10T16:43:28+00:00January 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’ve got to change our ornithological nomenclature. Hawks become doves because they are chickens underneath. Doves became hawks for reasons they don’t really understand. A fingers-crossed policy isn’t a robust one, so there really was no reason to expect the economy to be that way. In January 2019, especially the past few days, there are [...]