Bonds

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-07-19T18:19:10-04:00July 19th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper [...]

Some Real Hope Appears In Japan, Of All Places

By |2019-07-19T12:08:20-04:00July 19th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are things to feel optimistic about. I’ve been pegged as a doom and gloomer, and so long as things remain as they are, I don’t see what’s wrong about it. Long term, however, I’m as optimistic as anyone. There’s a gigantic wave of economic growth and prosperity just waiting to be unleashed – the [...]

Housing: Going Wrong In The Few Things That Were Going Right

By |2019-07-18T17:23:50-04:00July 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It certainly doesn’t feel like a bubble. We’ve heard about home prices in many cities skyrocketing like there has been one, still there does seem to be something different. If it is a bubble, it sure isn’t the same as the last one, the big one fifteen years ago. Much is missing this time around. [...]

Not A Paradox Nor A Conundrum: TICked at Powell

By |2019-07-17T17:14:56-04:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seems a paradox, at least like it is backwards. The financial media doesn’t help because good editorial standards rely upon the opinions and beliefs of credentialed people who have no idea what they are talking about. If you hold high office in some central bank, we are to assume you are competent about monetary [...]

Ticked About TIC: The Accidental Discovery of Perhaps The Big Bottleneck

By |2019-07-17T16:01:50-04:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

From October 2000 to July 2001, the Treasury Department conducted a special survey of users of its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Nearly two decades ago, it had become apparent (to some) just how important international dollar flows were to the overall economic and financial landscape. And not just those of the United States. TIC [...]

What Has Markets Spooked? Probably Something To Do With That Huge Offshore Dollar Hole

By |2019-07-12T18:42:11-04:00July 12th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Like a shark smelling blood in the water, I don’t care that the blood is in the water from leaking out of what will be a dead horse, if it isn’t deceased already. I pretty much intend to beat on it one way or another. The issue isn’t just fed funds, it’s why anyone cares [...]

Much More Than Rate Cuts On (Dis)Inflation

By |2019-07-11T17:05:40-04:00July 11th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Things have changed, obviously. Chairman Powell and the rest of the FOMC, the majority anyway, have come around to rate cuts. Where they were hawkish in December, noncommittal as late as May, they’ve been spooked into them over the last month or so. As it stands, the first one is less than three weeks away. [...]

A Trickle of Belgian Colored Deutsche Bank Speculation

By |2019-07-09T19:28:22-04:00July 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In October 2011, the bank’s Chairman bristled at the characterization. His was not going to be a “bad bank” as many in the financial media had been saying. Pierre Mariani, chief executive of Belgium’s Dexia, preferred instead to call it the “residual bank.” No matter the label, the firm was being bailed out for the [...]