Bonds

The Potential For Yield Plunge As Dovish Theater

By |2019-05-17T16:43:14-04:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Two on the same day, likely not coincidence. The next stage of “dovishness” may be upon us. It won’t be rate cuts; those won’t happen until all other excuses have been exhausted first. Jay Powell’s confused gang won’t give in until kicking and screaming there’s really nothing else left. The Fed “pause” isn’t working. To [...]

As Europe Keeps Falling, The Implications For Europe And Everyone Else

By |2019-05-17T12:17:22-04:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In late March, as global pessimism was renewed in the world’s bond markets, ECB President Mario Draghi appeared as he always does to urge optimism. Yes, Europe’s economy in particular didn’t finish 2018 as he had been expecting. But a soft patch, Draghi said, wouldn’t necessarily “foreshadow [a] serious slump.” The question on the minds [...]

From TIC’s Big March Number Right To Powell’s Future Rate Cut(s)

By |2019-05-16T17:38:39-04:00May 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise. After all, during the first quarter of this year several key banks announced they had had enough. Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Credit Suisse, as well as others, they all broadcast cuts to key operations. The FICC stuff, or bond trading to put it euphemistically. The very place the world [...]

Global Doves Expire: A Hundred Years of US IP Give Bond Market Another Win

By |2019-05-15T16:37:05-04:00May 15th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has been maintaining statistics on American industry for nearly as long as there has been a Federal Reserve. The first entry in the data series on Industrial Production is for the month of January ’19. Not 2019 but 1919. With over a hundred years of relatively consistent data, matching up very well [...]

CNY, Its Doom Sisters, And Chinese Threats

By |2019-05-13T16:31:59-04:00May 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a tell-tale sign of someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about. In the realm of global currency systems, anyone who brings up China’s massive stockpile of US Treasury assets inevitably they assign all the power to the Chinese. Xi could destroy Trump if he wanted, bringing down the US in a righteous [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: The Tempest

By |2019-05-13T16:41:14-04:00May 13th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The Trump administration raised tariffs last week from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and are considering tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese retaliated this morning, raising tariffs to 25% from 5% and 10% on various goods totaling $60 billion. Obviously, the trade negotiations are not going [...]

Curves Have Pointed The Way, And It’s The Way They Still Point

By |2019-05-10T16:52:02-04:00May 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the middle of last November, when the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve convened a conference on “global perspectives”, ironically, its officials were in a very good mood. The institution’s Chairman, Jay Powell, invited to speak at the gathering spelled out exactly why. Central bankers since Greenspan have made a habit of trying to [...]

JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon Warns Again On UST’s Even Though JPM Appears To Have Been Huge Buyers of UST’s

By |2019-05-09T18:09:37-04:00May 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon climbed back up on the bond bear. It was one year ago, May 7, 2018, when he went on BloombergTV and caused a substantial market stir when he said 4%. No one would want to buy UST’s what with inflation raging and the Federal Reserve forced into an overly aggressive [...]

Chinese Treasuries and FOMC Policies, The Big Number That Just Turned Against Jay Powell

By |2019-05-08T16:46:40-04:00May 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In a period when weird and unusual are commonplace, it was one of the more noteworthy and interesting outliers. Late in August 2010, a media report attributed to Hong Kong’s Ming Pao news agency suggested Zhou Xiaochuan was on the run. Supposedly, the Governor for the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, was [...]