Bonds

What Kind Of Risks/Mess Are We Looking At?

By |2019-06-03T18:08:37-04:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The fact that the mainstream isn’t taking this all very seriously isn’t anything new. But how serious are things really? That’s pretty much the only question anyone should be asking. What are the curves telling us about what’s now just over the horizon? I hesitate to use 2008 comparisons too often because many people immediately [...]

How Do You Get A September Rate Cut?

By |2019-06-03T12:24:49-04:00June 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When the eurodollar futures curve first inverted a year ago in the wake of May 29, 2018, it was the market beginning to hedge against serious and rising risks of something that would force the Federal Reserve to turn around. When that might happen, or how many cuts would eventually follow, those were questions the [...]

More and More The Economic Inflection

By |2019-05-31T18:32:05-04:00May 31st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You do wonder sometimes whether the person responsible for writing these things ever cringes while they do so. Are they ever shocked by a sudden bout of conscience? Then again, most of it is bland boilerplate language and when it’s not the difference is hidden under a maze of intentionally induced complexity or misdirection. The [...]

Trade Wars Will Be The New Subprime

By |2019-05-31T16:29:11-04:00May 31st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Trade wars are rapidly turning into subprime mortgages. A few billion in tariffs will have wrecked the entire global economy, they’ll claim. Just like all that toxic waste subprime mortgage fiasco led inevitably to the Great “Recession” and global panic. Neither will be true, except insofar as both were symptoms of the far greater cause. [...]

What If There Was No Punchbowl In The First Place?

By |2019-05-30T18:21:14-04:00May 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The celebration was premature. As usual, people were extrapolating reflation into recovery. Getting relatively better after being really bad is not the same as truly healing. Reflation is a necessary but by itself insufficient condition for normalcy. The latter requires the former as a first step and then needs enough momentum (of opportunity) to carry [...]

More What’s Behind Yield Curve: Now Two Straight Negative Quarters For Corporate Profit

By |2019-05-30T16:10:18-04:00May 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) piled on more bad news to the otherwise pleasing GDP headline for the first quarter. In its first revision to the preliminary estimate, the government agency said output advanced just a little less than first thought. This wasn’t actually the substance of their message. Accompanying this first revision was [...]

Europe Comes Apart, And That’s Before #4

By |2019-05-29T11:33:09-04:00May 29th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In May 2018, the European Parliament found that it was incredibly popular. Commissioning what it calls the Eurobarameter survey, the EU’s governing body said that two-thirds of Europeans inside the bloc believed that membership had benefited their own countries. It was the highest showing since 1983. Voters in May 2019 don’t appear to have agreed [...]

Irony of Ironies; It’s Been Federal Funds Leading the Bond Yield Plunge The Whole Way

By |2019-05-28T16:51:44-04:00May 28th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Tomorrow will be one year since the global monetary system broke. Or, for the sake of accuracy, broke again this for the fourth time. There had been warnings going all the way back to September 2017 about how all was not right in the realm of reserve currency. These would take on added importance at [...]