Bonds

Fed: We Are, Don’t Get Spooked, Very Happy With Things But We Are Going to Review Our Policies And Tools In the Very Small, Microscopic Chance We’ve Missed Something

By |2019-03-08T18:03:55-04:00March 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Last August, the Senate confirmed Richard Clarida for both a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as to be installed as its Vice Chairman. Clarida had been chairman of the Economics department at Columbia as well as working for PIMCO where he had served the investment company as its Global Strategic [...]

The Big Minus Wasn’t Actually China’s Big Contraction In Exports

By |2019-03-08T15:58:39-04:00March 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More important than the US GDP number, more substantial than the February jobs report, what will linger for longer in the public consciousness is China’s trade data. It seems as if the big drop in exports has garnered the most immediate attention, I suspect that won’t be the case moving forward. There are more important [...]

Not Buying The New Stimulus

By |2019-03-07T17:49:38-04:00March 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What just happened in Europe? The short answer is T-LTRO. The ECB is getting back to being “accommodative” again. This isn’t what was supposed to be happening at this point in time. Quite the contrary, Europe’s central bank had been expecting to end all its programs and begin normalizing interest rates. The reaction to this [...]

No Surprise, Hysteria Wasn’t a Sound Basis For Interpretation

By |2019-02-27T17:11:06-04:00February 27th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What gets them into trouble is how they just can’t help themselves. Go back one year, to early 2018. Last February it was all-but-assured (in mainstream coverage) that the US economy was going to take off. The bond market, meaning UST’s, was about to be massacred because the overheating boom would force a double shot [...]

Jay Powell Is In The Way (Literally, for the UST Curve)

By |2019-02-27T12:54:39-04:00February 27th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Early in May 2013, the word “taper” exploded into the mainstream. It was everywhere, scarcely an article written or news story pieced together which hadn't included the term (even though Ben Bernanke never actually said it). The so-called tantrum spread like wildfire simply because of what it represented, the very thing everyone had been waiting [...]

Not Surprisingly, It Wasn’t Italy

By |2019-02-25T16:39:18-04:00February 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s so obscure now, I actually had to go back and reread what was going on there at the time. On May 29, the mainstream consensus was how Italian populists were screwing up Europe. Global bond markets were supposed to be selling off, massacred as global recovery took hold. Instead, worldwide the most liquid, safe [...]

Sinking Shippers Signal Global Goods Troubles

By |2019-02-21T17:50:19-04:00February 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It infects every boardroom across the world. Big business requires decent forecasting, yet time and again it seems they are deprived of what they desperately need. Instead, even after this last decade, the world’s largest companies continue to be surprised by weakness that is far more prevalent than strength. It has been the one constant. [...]

FOMC Minutes: The New Narrative Takes Shape

By |2019-02-20T16:48:28-04:00February 20th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Nothing the Fed did today, or has done up to today, has changed the curves. Eurodollar futures and UST’s, they are both still inverted. The former sharply inverted. The only thing that has changed since early January is the narrative – and not in a charitable way. It is treated as a positive when it [...]

More TIC December: More Shadow(s) Than Shadow Money

By |2019-02-20T15:46:15-04:00February 20th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The TIC data for December 2018 starts out well enough, exactly the way it should. The headline says foreigners sold a record amount of US$ assets in that month. Anyone paying attention during it would be the opposite of shocked. Everyone sold anything they could in December. It follows from the idea of dollar shortage. [...]

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