Commodities

Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

By |2018-11-29T21:46:14+00:00November 29th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Is the Fed's monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still "a long way from neutral" and that the Fed may ultimately need [...]

Approaching the Point of No Return? UPDATED

By |2018-11-13T15:18:52+00:00November 13th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

At the end of June, the crude curve really got out of hand. WTI futures had returned to backwardation many months before, and then the eurodollar/collateral explosion May 29 sapped some crude strength. Over the following month, curve backwardation would become extreme as the benchmark price seemed ready to skyrocket. After getting up near $80 [...]

The Long Shadows

By |2018-11-12T16:08:24+00:00November 12th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The news was one of those instances when you could see they were trying a little too hard. It didn’t make any sense, not anyway in the context to which it was delivered. On September 21, unnamed German officials were supposedly championing a megamerger in the banking sector. The country’s two largest financial institutions might [...]

Three Stages of Gold

By |2018-10-23T16:53:25+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For days after China shocked the world in August 2015, “devaluing” its currency seemingly out of nowhere, there was only confusion as to what had just happened. Going by nothing more than the mainstream media and economic narrative fed to it by central bankers and Economists (redundant), you wouldn’t have known anything was wrong at [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – October 2018

By |2018-10-23T10:42:20+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Stocks have stumbled into October with the S&P 500 down about 6% as I write this. The source of equity investors' angst is always hard to pinpoint and this is no exception but this correction doesn't seem to be due to concerns about economic growth. At least not directly. The most common explanation for the [...]

How Close Are the Clouds?

By |2018-10-12T11:56:52+00:00October 12th, 2018|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

April was only a half a year ago, the optimism of 2017 at that time as yet untroubled by darkening skies. What had happened earlier in the year was nothing, they said, just a little nervousness about things becoming, don’t laugh, too good. Inflation was picking up because the global economy was roaring, which would [...]

Eurodollar University Toronto; Hierarchy, Money, and Consequences

By |2018-09-24T11:53:17+00:00September 24th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Eleven years apparently isn't near enough. For the occasion of yet another year passing since August 9, 2007, and nothing much having been done about it, in partnership with MacroVoices I published a second series of Eurodollar University. Whereas Season One focused on the history and buildup of shadow money, where it came from and [...]