Commodities

Copper And Oil Walked Out On The Last Puppet Show

By |2019-06-05T16:07:26-04:00June 5th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where have you gone, green shoots? The Fed turned dovish, a bunch of transitory factors, and, above all, so much Chinese stimulus. That’s what got everyone through the winter. Markets were truly harsh to end 2018, a sharp slap in the face after all year the unemployment rate. One of the big ones that seemed [...]

Chart (Deluge) Of The Month

By |2019-05-24T16:44:54-04:00May 24th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In Europe, the ECB’s minutes for its April 2019 meeting claimed: Financial market developments, which were typically more forward looking, were more upbeat. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s minutes for its April 2019 meeting claimed: Participants noted that even if global economic and financial conditions continued to improve, a patient approach would likely remain [...]

What About Copper?

By |2019-05-22T16:38:44-04:00May 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC hates the bond market. Hates everything about it, especially how it tells these Economists they don’t know what they are doing. Monetary policy being little more than a vanity project, that’s not going to work for the people practicing it. OK, if you don’t like bonds then how about something else besides the [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: The Tempest

By |2019-05-13T16:41:14-04:00May 13th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The Trump administration raised tariffs last week from 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and are considering tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese retaliated this morning, raising tariffs to 25% from 5% and 10% on various goods totaling $60 billion. Obviously, the trade negotiations are not going [...]

COT Blue: Distinct Lack of Green But A Lot That’s Gold

By |2019-04-23T18:50:50-04:00April 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Gold, in my worldview, can be a “heads I win, tails you lose” proposition. If it goes up, that’s fear. Nothing good. If it goes down, that’s collateral. In many ways, worse. Either way, it is only bad, right? Not always. There are times when rising gold signals inflation, more properly reflation perceptions. Determining which [...]

China’s Big Money Gamble

By |2019-02-15T12:06:00-04:00February 15th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While oil prices rebounded in January 2019 around the world, outside of crude commodities continued to struggle. According to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet, base metal prices fell another 1.8% on average from December. On an annual basis, these commodities as a group are about 16% below where they were in January 2018. The last [...]

COT Black Is Partially Back With A Lot of Towels

By |2019-02-06T16:33:23-04:00February 6th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is in a bit of a tough spot. Being subject to the federal government shutdown meant shutting down the various Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for all the products listed on the exchange. There are a lot of them. Though the government and therefore the CFTC has reopened, it [...]

Chinese Robots, New York Heartburn, and Goldman Sach’s Central Role

By |2019-02-05T18:54:16-04:00February 5th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the continued absence of regular data, as the US federal government attempts to get back up to speed before the next lull, it is perhaps appropriate to continue on with this week’s parade of anecdotes. Here I’ll discuss three of them, each seemingly unrelated to the others. To begin, we start with Chinese robots. [...]