Currencies

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-07-19T18:19:10-04:00July 19th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor|

The markets we use to monitor the economy (and those that influence it, which amounts to the same thing) have been tracking an economic slowdown since the 4th quarter of last year. That's when interest rates, real and nominal, long term and short term, started to decline, credit spreads started to widen and the copper [...]

The PBOC’s Involuntarily Enormous Bet

By |2019-07-19T17:55:19-04:00July 19th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Central bankers are not nimble traders. By their very bureaucratic nature, they leave big muddy footprints all over markets. Sometimes that is by design, a show of force to scare some evil speculators into going straight. Other times, it just can’t be helped. The way it works in China, the autocratic structure doesn’t leave much [...]

Some Real Hope Appears In Japan, Of All Places

By |2019-07-19T12:08:20-04:00July 19th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There are things to feel optimistic about. I’ve been pegged as a doom and gloomer, and so long as things remain as they are, I don’t see what’s wrong about it. Long term, however, I’m as optimistic as anyone. There’s a gigantic wave of economic growth and prosperity just waiting to be unleashed – the [...]

Some Seriousness In The Silly Beige

By |2019-07-18T18:38:44-04:00July 18th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I confess to following the Beige Book lately for mostly entertainment purposes. It was always an exercise in intellectual vanity, an opportunity for Fed Presidents to cram into it their own biases. But to see the FOMC just abandon the LABOR SHORTAGE!!! like they have, that’s not strictly about amusement; though it is to some [...]

Housing: Going Wrong In The Few Things That Were Going Right

By |2019-07-18T17:23:50-04:00July 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It certainly doesn’t feel like a bubble. We’ve heard about home prices in many cities skyrocketing like there has been one, still there does seem to be something different. If it is a bubble, it sure isn’t the same as the last one, the big one fifteen years ago. Much is missing this time around. [...]

Not A Paradox Nor A Conundrum: TICked at Powell

By |2019-07-17T17:14:56-04:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seems a paradox, at least like it is backwards. The financial media doesn’t help because good editorial standards rely upon the opinions and beliefs of credentialed people who have no idea what they are talking about. If you hold high office in some central bank, we are to assume you are competent about monetary [...]

Ticked About TIC: The Accidental Discovery of Perhaps The Big Bottleneck

By |2019-07-17T16:01:50-04:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

From October 2000 to July 2001, the Treasury Department conducted a special survey of users of its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data. Nearly two decades ago, it had become apparent (to some) just how important international dollar flows were to the overall economic and financial landscape. And not just those of the United States. TIC [...]

Nastier Number Four: A Broader Industrial Base On The Wrong Side

By |2019-07-16T16:20:04-04:00July 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There’s always weakness even in the most booming of economies. Even in the real booms, not the 2017 hysteria kind, not all cylinders will be firing. What makes them real, however, is when the vast majority are. The concept behind globally synchronized growth was a valid one, it just never came out in practice. The [...]

Globally Synchronized, After All

By |2019-07-16T12:49:44-04:00July 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered. More and more, though, it [...]

Poring Over Poor Singapore’s Far Nastier Number Four

By |2019-07-15T19:12:46-04:00July 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You aren’t going to find the worst economic quarter in Singapore’s modern history in either 2008 or 2009. It was actually posted in 2010. During the third quarter of that year, GDP declined by a whopping 11% annual rate. While that’s the biggest contraction still on record, initial government estimates thought it was closer to [...]