I generally remain noncommittal about giving specific predictions about the future because there is simply no way toward predilection. We can think about probabilities as a guide for analysis, particularly in setting investment guidelines, but to offer targets for factors like GDP or some stock index is pointless. Even now, with all that is taking place of economic unraveling, there [...]
You may have heard recently about the Transportation Safety Administration’s record for safety measures in airline transportation. The task with which the government agency is charged has become a bit of a joke, with public perception almost of a gang of thieves running a sanctioned-criminal enterprise. The groping and stealing are held back, with apathy and inertia on its side, [...]
The unifying element of the prospect for recession in 2015 is how it will reveal the hugely mistaken assumptions that were taken on faith alone. Entering 2008, for example, the FOMC kept some plausibility because of the housing debacle. A convenient scapegoat, the Fed proclaimed that recession was a danger on housing alone, and so its mistakes were met as [...]
The main thing about “tail events” is how unconventional they can be, a tautology that somehow is necessary. When taking account of financial risks in 2015 it is almost convention that there are bubbles, with rather unnerving complacency about it all. That suggests in some ways the whole idea of bubbles has changed since the first one under eurodollars showed [...]
If there is some small gain to be had from current economic circumstances, it might be a lesson in what the dollar is and what it is not. Just a few months ago the idea of the “strong dollar” was almost ubiquitous, scarcely any shaky economic commentary could be found without mentioning that as the trump to the upside. It [...]
When the BLS models payroll expansion they don’t actually count payroll expansion. In the 1960’s, economic accounting shifted to mostly stochastic processes which changed the way mainstream economic statistics were calculated and kept. We all know, particularly recently, about how these data series are constantly revised, and often by more than minor adjustments, but that in some ways obscures the [...]
Personal spending fell slightly in April, making three of the last five months for declines. Such a sustained slump is actually quite rare, and you have to go back to the Great Recession to find anything like it in recent history. There are a few reasons for this now-accumulated downtrend, but it always starts with income. While personal income has [...]
With the preliminary release of the quarterly GDP revision comes the BEA’s version of corporate profits. This is obviously different from EPS accounting that goes along with stock indices and various earnings growth measures as this macro view of profits encompasses a much larger business spectrum (though it does not include non-corporate business which is a pass-through component into personal [...]
It wasn't a pretty week for stocks globally. Almost every major market was down - one prominent exception was Japan - and the minor ones were down more. China experienced a 6.5% hiccup mid-week that everyone seemed to want to see as, at least, the beginning of the end of that bull market so it probably was nothing more than [...]
While the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) surged to new all-time highs in the last week, the index has been trading within a tight range since February. Is this a sign of a tired market ready to correct? Or is it one of a market consolidating in preparation for a new move higher? The index has been straddling the 50-day moving average [...]
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