Stocks

Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

By |2018-11-29T21:46:14+00:00November 29th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Is the Fed's monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still "a long way from neutral" and that the Fed may ultimately need [...]

The Long Shadows

By |2018-11-12T16:08:24+00:00November 12th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The news was one of those instances when you could see they were trying a little too hard. It didn’t make any sense, not anyway in the context to which it was delivered. On September 21, unnamed German officials were supposedly championing a megamerger in the banking sector. The country’s two largest financial institutions might [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – October 2018

By |2018-10-23T10:42:20+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Stocks have stumbled into October with the S&P 500 down about 6% as I write this. The source of equity investors' angst is always hard to pinpoint and this is no exception but this correction doesn't seem to be due to concerns about economic growth. At least not directly. The most common explanation for the [...]

Sentiment Time

By |2018-10-16T15:49:23+00:00October 16th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The one thing the globally synchronized growth narrative had going for it was sentiment. It often had that in surplus. But therein lies a major drawback; are people happy because things are getting better, or do they believe things are getting better because “everyone” says so? There’s a difference and it’s a big one. And [...]

A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-10-03T19:03:31+00:00October 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. [...]

Exhibit A For No Growth

By |2018-09-27T16:53:16+00:00September 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised Q2 GDP to a 4.07464% continuously compounded annual rate from 4.13987%. More importantly, the BEA provided revised benchmark estimates for corporate profits. The good news is that the benchmark was higher. The bad news is that companies still aren’t making any money. All the revisions applied to long [...]

What’s Worth It

By |2018-09-25T17:40:07+00:00September 25th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Earlier this year, two law professors at the University of California, Berkeley School of Law took issue with of all things Tobin’s Q. Though named for James Tobin, the idea had been introduced much earlier by several people. Tobin popularized one view of the concept. Robert Bartlett and Frank Partnoy objected to many of the [...]

Eurodollar University Toronto; Hierarchy, Money, and Consequences

By |2018-09-24T11:53:17+00:00September 24th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Eleven years apparently isn't near enough. For the occasion of yet another year passing since August 9, 2007, and nothing much having been done about it, in partnership with MacroVoices I published a second series of Eurodollar University. Whereas Season One focused on the history and buildup of shadow money, where it came from and [...]