Stocks

Inflation Falls Again, Dot-com-like

By |2019-02-13T16:37:20+00:00February 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

US inflation in January 2019 was, according to the CPI, the lowest in years. At just 1.55% year-over-year, the index hadn’t suggested this level since September 2016 right at the outset of what would become Reflation #3. Having hyped expectations over that interim, US policymakers now have to face the repercussions of unwinding the hysteria. [...]

Living In The Present

By |2019-01-10T17:15:44+00:00January 5th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Investing, Markets, Politics, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The secret of health for both mind and body is not to mourn for the past, nor to worry about the future, but to live in the present moment wisely and earnestly. Buddha Review It's that time of year again, time to cast the runes, consult the iChing, shake the Magic Eight Ball and read [...]

Stocks, SIFI’s, and RHINO’s (or QT)

By |2018-12-19T17:39:14+00:00December 19th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In September 2009, leaders of the G20 nations got together in Pittsburgh. It was the third such summit in close succession following the devastating events of the monetary crisis, ostensibly so that each head of state could share strategies with the others as to how to avoid blame. Solutions weren’t in good supply, obviously. Populism [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

By |2018-11-29T21:46:14+00:00November 29th, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Is the Fed's monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still "a long way from neutral" and that the Fed may ultimately need [...]

The Long Shadows

By |2018-11-12T16:08:24+00:00November 12th, 2018|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The news was one of those instances when you could see they were trying a little too hard. It didn’t make any sense, not anyway in the context to which it was delivered. On September 21, unnamed German officials were supposedly championing a megamerger in the banking sector. The country’s two largest financial institutions might [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – October 2018

By |2018-10-23T10:42:20+00:00October 23rd, 2018|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Monthly Macro Monitor, Stocks|

Stocks have stumbled into October with the S&P 500 down about 6% as I write this. The source of equity investors' angst is always hard to pinpoint and this is no exception but this correction doesn't seem to be due to concerns about economic growth. At least not directly. The most common explanation for the [...]

Sentiment Time

By |2018-10-16T15:49:23+00:00October 16th, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The one thing the globally synchronized growth narrative had going for it was sentiment. It often had that in surplus. But therein lies a major drawback; are people happy because things are getting better, or do they believe things are getting better because “everyone” says so? There’s a difference and it’s a big one. And [...]

A Few Questions From Today’s BOND ROUT!!!!

By |2018-10-03T19:03:31+00:00October 3rd, 2018|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

On April 2, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield traded below 2.75%. It had been as high as 2.94% in later February at the tail end of last year’s inflation hysteria. But after the shock of global liquidations in late January and early February, liquidity concerns would override again at least for a short while. [...]

Exhibit A For No Growth

By |2018-09-27T16:53:16+00:00September 27th, 2018|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised Q2 GDP to a 4.07464% continuously compounded annual rate from 4.13987%. More importantly, the BEA provided revised benchmark estimates for corporate profits. The good news is that the benchmark was higher. The bad news is that companies still aren’t making any money. All the revisions applied to long [...]

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